‘Quality’ loss may control Irish destiny
Falling at Georgia won’t necessarily end playoff bid
Welcome to the college football overreaction index, where we examine the most important storylines from the last weekend of games to determine what’s worth paying attention to and what’s getting a little too much attention.
Here are the biggest takeaways from Week 4.
That’s it for Notre Dame’s playoff hopes.
Verdict: Overreaction.
Welcome to “quality loss” season.
The Fighting Irish entered a top-10 matchup with Georgia as two-touchdown underdogs and held their own, falling 23-17 on Saturday night. But the game never really felt as close as the score might indicate.
Notre Dame entered the half leading 10-7, but it needed to recover a muffed punt deep in Georgia territory to set up a touchdown. The Irish didn’t exactly punch it in after that, needing four attempts from inside the 2 to score.
Once Georgia finally opened up its conservative offense in the second half by taking some shots downfield with quarterback Jake Fromm, Notre Dame looked overmatched. But it didn’t show up on the scoreboard.
Why does any of it matter? The playoff committee will look at this matchup when it comes time to weigh Georgia’s and Notre Dame’s merits against other top contenders. If the Irish win out and finish 11-1, a spirited showing in a hostile SEC environment will be a feather in their cap. For Georgia, a close win at a top-10 team’s home might not be enough to make up for a conference loss and/or possible defeat at the hands of Alabama in the SEC championship game.
It’s time to panic at Michigan.
Verdict: Overreaction.
It looks hopeless in Ann Arbor. Even with an extra week to prepare, the Wolverines were flattened on the road against Wisconsin 35-14. Michigan looked lifeless, rushing for just 40 yards while giving up 359 to the Badgers. Jonathan Taylor needed just 23 carries to get 203 yards, and quarterback Jack Coan even scrambled for a 25-yard TD.
Since 2015, when Jim Harbaugh took over, Michigan is 0-7 outright as an underdog, the only Power 5 school to go winless in that span. Harbaugh is also 0-8 on the road or at a neutral site against teams ranked in the AP Top 15 since taking over.
It’s no secret that Michigan fans have been feeling angsty about Harbaugh’s record against his rivals in the Big Ten East, especially Ohio State, who he has failed to beat in his first four seasons. Saturday’s loss only raised more questions about his ability to compete for conference championships.
It’s easy to pile on when Michigan is down. But just look at Harbaugh has done in his career, both in college and the NFL. He certainly isn’t slipping on the recruiting trail. He’s been able to develop that talent, too, as Michigan just had five players picked in the NFL draft, including two in the first 12 selections.
The question for fans during these coaching discussions is always: Who is your team going to hire instead?
UCF can’t hang with the Power 5 after all.
Verdict: Overreaction.
The Knights certainly didn’t do themselves any favors by losing to Pittsburgh 35-34 on a last-minute trick play. It marked their first regular-season loss in 27 games, a remarkable stretch for any team in any conference, regardless of the level of competition.
If it was so easy to do what UCF is doing in the Group of 5 more teams would. Consider the strides made by fellow AAC teams like Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati in recent seasons, and even their accomplishments pale in comparison with what the Knights have done under Scott Frost and now Josh Heupel.
What makes UCF’s defeat all the more frustrating is how it affects the perception of the rest of the Group of 5. After their loss, the Knights slid all the way from No. 15 to No. 22, leaving themselves and No. 16 Boise State, representing the Mountain West, as the only ranked G5 teams.
In the last three seasons, starting with its 13-0 campaign in 2017, UCF is 4-2 against the P5.
It’s easy to point to the loss to Pitt as a reason why UCF should never have been included in the playoff discussion. You can also point to their strong showing against LSU in the Fiesta Bowl last season as a reason why they deserve a chance.