Trump’s 2016 triumph gives rise to activism
New grassroots efforts attempt to flip the Keystone State
In 2016, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college votes by fewer than 50,000 votes.
Four years later, Democrats across the state are redoubling efforts to flip the Keystone State for Democratic challenger Joe Biden with new grassroots efforts in the Lehigh Valley, while Republicans are leaning on the energy surrounding Trump’s candidacy to keep turnout and enthusiasm high for a repeat GOP victory.
The energy among Democrats this year feels different, said Chris Borick, professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. Four years ago, the energy seemed to be on the side of Trump just based on signs alone, he said.
This year, he’s seeing more Biden signs near the Trump signs an indication of energy and organization that Biden
supporters are hoping translates to a win.
“Democrats believe they can do that, I think Republicans have their own base, energy and history of turnout, and that gives them some optimism, but I think the efforts on the Democrats compared to four years ago are certainly larger and we’ll see how impactful that is,” Borick said.
Nationally, there’s been an expansion of secondary, grassroots groups on the Democratic side that play a role in getting people registered and voting, he said.
And in the Lehigh Valley, Democratic-leaning groups also formed in the wake of Trump’s election. Many have focused on smaller, local races using strategies they’ve learned over the last few years and while grappling with the implications of COVID19 to persuade voters to show up at the polls for Biden.
On the GOP side, officials report a busy campaign season, with existing groups seeing more interest from supporters than usual.
In 2016, Lehigh County went for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, while Northampton County went for Trump.
The new groups hope they can close the gap in the state 2020.
“We feel a lot of pressure, a lot of responsibility, and weight to feel we do the absolute best job we can here, because we know it’s critical for the whole country,” said Kathy Harrington, a vice chairperson of the Lehigh County Democratic Committee and volunteer coordinator for Lehigh Valley for All, a grassroots group she helped form after Trump’s victory in 2016. “On Election Day, if Donald Trump did win, we don’t want to look back on ourselves and feel we could do more.”
Harrington said she’s learned lessons since 2016, when she was a door-knocker for the Clinton campaign. She remembers times when she’d go to drop off campaign literature on a street, only to find someone else dropped it off earlier.
Now, the volunteers are learning not to duplicate efforts. They’ve also learned the importance of poll watchers and campaign signs, and of working together with other Democratic groups instead of pulling in different directions.
Even armed with new knowledge, get-out-the vote campaigns have to contend with COVID-19. For Democratic groups, that’s meant fewer events and little door knocking up until last week. But volunteers are still trying to reach potential voters by phone, text and through campaign literature.
There’s a different urgency for voters this year, too.
“The huge thing is antiTrump sentiment and maybe it awakened a Democratic spirit of people who, they thought, ‘Well, Trump can never win,’ and when he did it woke them up,” said Matt Munsey, chairperson of the Northampton County Democratic Committee.
Grassroots groups
That spirit has indeed awakened grassroots groups, including Lehigh Valley for All, Saucon Democrats and Lehigh Valley Stands Up, and has resurrected the East Penn Democratic Club.
Saucon Democrats formed about a year and a half ago, after a group of residents noticed aspects of national politics trickling down to their local boards.
“[We saw] local council members flirting with Trumpism, subscribing to a national agenda that really is very inappropriate for our local communities, and we saw a kind of dark synergy between Trump and our neighborhoods, and that was it for us,” said Bill Broun, a Hellertown resident and one of the group’s founders.
He said 2020 can’t be compared with 2016, when there were no Democratic organizations focused on Saucon Valley.
Another group, Pennsylvania Stands Up, formed following the 2018 midterms. A Lehigh Valley chapter is doing “deep canvassing,” in which they make phone calls and have longer, issuesbased conversations with people, said Ashleigh Strange, a regional organizer.
She said the organization is presenting itself as more of a healing organization that will be around to pick up the pieces after the November election. Members hope to get a diverse slate of candidates who better reflect the community to run in 2021.
“Turnout is low if you use
people like pawns,” Strange said.
With Biden, they’re telling voters they’ll have a candidate who will fight for them, not someone they’ll have to fight against.
Ivan Garcia, the political director for Make the Road Action Pennsylvania, which started in 2014, said his group is also talking to voters about issues beyond the 2020 election.
Experts say the race could come down to white women and millennials. Garcia said his organization is also focused on neglected voters in Black and Latinx communities.
“We could invest all our time to get this Obama-Trump voter or we can actually invest time and get folks that are going to come out and vote that have been
neglected and ignored for years,” he said.
GOP enthusiasm
Lehigh Valley Republicans are also busy this election cycle, but they haven’t seen the same type of locally focused grassroots groups crop up in the last four years. Their engagement efforts are carried out by a mix of county committee officials, issue-focused coalitions like those that are anti-abortion or pro-Second Amendment, and other conservative groups that have been around for years.
That doesn’t mean there’s not tons of energy.
“We’re in the battle for the soul of our nation right now,” said Tom Carroll, the Lehigh Valley Tea Party president. “It’s not politics as usual on either side in any way.”
He said the 2016 Trump campaign was grassroots until he won the nomination. Now that Trump is the incumbent, he has all that grassroots support as well as the establishment backing, Carroll said.
Carroll said there have been many events, from flag waves to caravans and guest speakers. He sees a lot of collaboration between groups, too.
“All of a sudden this cycle all of the players are working together, sharing information as best they can for events, getting volunteers to get out to knock on a record number of doors and make a record number of phone calls,” he said.
Republican headquarters in the Lehigh Valley have never been busier, officials say. Lehigh County Republicans had to extend their headquarters’ hours because foot traffic was so high. Glenn Eckhart, chairperson of the Lehigh County Republican Committee, estimated it’s given out about 2,000 signs, and that small donations to the organization are at an all-time high.
“I’ve been involved in politics for 25 years now and I can never remember a presidential race that had so much interest and enthusiasm right down to the common voter,” Eckhart said. “Everybody wants to be part of the effort.”
Lee Snover, chairperson for the Northampton County Republican Committee, said energy is up in her county, too. A September rally in Lower Saucon Township featuring Mark and Patricia McCloskey, the St. Louis couple who gained notoriety after an armed confrontation with Black Lives Matter protesters outside their home, drew hundreds of people.
She said mail-in voting and voter integrity have become a focus, marking a change from 2016. Making sure there are poll watchers and people watching drop boxes also is a part of Republicans’ campaign, she said.
Snover said turnout is where Republicans can win again. She thinks they’ll see increased turnout among new voters and newly registered Republicans.
“I think we’ve gained a lot of rural people who are out there to save their land and rights and freedom,” she said.
The Lehigh Valley Young Republicans, a group that was reestablished in 2014, has been focused on local candidates for offices such as state representative, said Antonio Pineda, who chairs the organization.
“We’re just going to get out there and keep pounding the pavement and doing the drops and doors and we always try to put out signs the night before the election at the polls,” he said.
Biden ahead, but Republicans gain
A recent Morning Call/ Muhlenberg College poll found that voters in the 7th Congressional District favored Biden over Trump 51%-44%, and that Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wild holds a 13-point lead over Republican challenger Lisa Scheller.
In the Lehigh Valley, more new Democrats registered to vote than Republicans in the last year, with 11,158 new Democrats since November 2019 and 10,772 new Republicans. Lehigh and Northampton county both have more Democrats than Republicans.
But while Democrats may have higher sheer numbers, the rate of Republican registration has shot up in the Lehigh Valley over the last four years, with more people registering as Republican than Democrat. In Northampton County that difference is dramatic, with the number of Republicans growing by 8%, compared to 1.8% in Democratic growth.
Whether all these groups’ efforts are effective remains to be seen, said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College.
He said the electorate is highly polarized, so activists can try to find demographically similar people and make sure they’re going to vote, or reach out to people who aren’t frequent voters to see if they’re going to support their position.
The biggest change for Pennsylvania Democrats has been in the suburbs, he said.
On the one hand, Democrats are losing support with white working class voters in old industrial areas where coal, iron and steel were once important, Madonna said. On the other, Democrats have made their biggest gains, including in municipal elections, in the suburbs.
“Republicans have a real challenge there to stop the hemorrhaging with their support, particularly with college-educated women and millennials in the suburbs.” he said.
He said Trump’s election galvanized the base in the suburbs, where groups like college educated women and millenials live, and where they care about issues like abortion, climate change and gun control.
Trump’s style and personality is also off-putting to that group, Madonna said.
Munsey, of the Northampton County Democrats, said last time there was a sense, especially in outlying areas, of being outnumbered by Trump supporters.
This time, he said, Democrats are better prepared with more signs and a sense of not taking a win for granted.
“I think we’re in a much better position than in 2016,” he said. “We’re confident, but not overconfident.”