Here’s what must go right for Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies believe they are capable of making the 2021 playoffs.
“We have the players [to get to the World Series],” said shortstop Didi Gregorius.
The oddsmakers and numerous websites respectfully disagree, projecting the Phils to win from 79 to 83 games this season.
In the eight 162-game campaigns since the National League added a second wild-card team (2012-19), it’s required an average of 91.2 wins to reach the postseason.
A year ago, the Phillies went 28-32 and were unable to qualify despite an expanded playoff field in the abbreviated 60-game season.
For the Phils to increase their chances of ending a 10-year postseason drought, what must they do?
Yes, it’s early. The full-squad workouts in Clearwater, Florida, only started Monday and the Grapefruit League season doesn’t begin until Sunday against the Detroit Tigers.
Key players staying healthy is essential. The Phillies are counting heavily on guys such as right fielder Bryce Harper, catcher J.T. Realmuto, who is hoping to be ready for the April 1 season opener vs. the Atlanta Braves after fracturing his right thumb last week, bulked-up third baseman Alec Bohm, and top starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler.
The Phillies need offensive production from Harper and Realmuto, who dropped off during the second half of last season. First baseman Rhys Hoskins, who has been physically cleared in the wake of Tommy John surgery on his left elbow Oct. 2, could also be less streaky at the plate.
They need at least two starting pitchers to emerge behind No. 3 man Zach Eflin and for Andrew McCutchen, Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn and a slimmed-down Scott Kingery to handle the left and center field spots.
One point of emphasis by Girardi and his staff this spring is stressing repetitively doing what’s right. He doesn’t want to overlook the little things.
“As a group, [the infielders] know we need to be better than we were last year,” Hoskins said. “There’s little things that are being stressed, pre-pitch stuff like knowing where we’re going with the ball before each pitch — fundamentally sound things that often get overlooked. I really think that’s going to help us as a group.”
But the biggest area in which Girardi’s team can improve is the bullpen.
When you compile the second-worst bullpen ERA (7.06) in MLB history, as the Phillies did a year ago, there’s no place to go but up.
Signing Archie Bradley to a one-year, $6 million deal is a good start. Bradley has consistently gotten batters out over the past four seasons, accumulating a 2.95 ERA and averaging more than a strikeout per inning, and should be the closer, with Hector Neris likely to take over in the eighth inning.
While returning relievers Connor Brogdon, a right-hander, and lefty JoJo Romero showed signs in 2020 that they could be capable of contributing, a pair of veteran nonroster invitees could end up giving the bullpen a big boost.
Righty Brandon Kintzler and lefty Tony Watson were quite effective a year ago. Kintzler made 24 relief appearances with the Miami Marlins, compiling a 2.22 ERA in 24 ⅓ innings with 12 saves.
Meanwhile, Watson went 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and two saves in 21 appearances for the San Francisco Giants in 2020.
If those two can perform at close to that level again, perhaps they could take care of the seventh inning, which would solve what was a giant headache for Girardi last season.
We’re undoubtedly getting ahead of ourselves, but April 1 will be here before we know it.