Commission eyes emissions

Valley produces more than 3% of the state’s greenhouse gases; expected to climb slowly in next 25 years

The Lehigh Valley accounts for about 3.7% of greenhouse gas emissions for Pennsylvania. With a growing population that’s expected to approach 800,000 by 2050, what does that mean for the Valley’s environment?

At the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission’s recent Outlook presentation, one of the areas covered was a regional greenhouse gas inventory that determined which sectors are most responsible for carbon emissions.

“We recognize that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are causing profound climate change, the consequences of which pose substantial risks to the future health, well-being and prosperity of our communities,” LVPC regional planner Julie Benco said. “The first step toward tackling climate change requires identifying baseline emissions levels and sources and activities that generate emissions in the community.”

That’s why the LVPC is launching the region’s first climate action plan in 2023.

“You’ll be hearing a lot more from us early next year,” Benco said.

Measuring emissions

Using 2019 as a baseline, the LVPC completed a regional greenhouse gas inventory with help from

the state Department of Environmental Protection’s Local Climate Action Planning program, the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives and Moravian University.

It found that the Valley’s gross emissions for 2019 was 9.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.

The LVPC split the Valley into six sectors — industrial electricity and natural gas; transportation and mobile sources; residential energy; commercial energy; solid waste; and water and wastewater.

More than 60% of the emissions came from industrial electricity and natural gas (34.5%) and transportation and mobile sources (26.6%).

By comparison, the DEP said in its most recent data from 2018 that Pennsylvania was responsible for approximately 269 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent being emitted into the atmosphere. Production and consumption of energy accounted for nearly 90% of these emissions. It’s an improvement from the 328 million metric tons in 2005.

“Future greenhouse gas emissions within the Lehigh Valley will be impacted by multiple factors, such as population, employment, land use patterns, economic activity, energy efficiency and transportation habits,” Benco said. “Despite a fairly sizable reduction in the transportation sector, our expected growth as a region will still cause overall emissions to increase — unless we do a lot more to reverse it.”

Benco said the Valley’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to grow from 9.8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2019 to more than 10 million metric tons in 2049, an increase of 1.5%, or about 0.05% each year.

For its forecast the LVPC used a “business-as-usual” scenario, meaning there are no new actions or policies adopted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while adding in the LVPC’s projection of 100,000 more people living in the Valley and 70,000 more jobs.

The projections, because of the increased use of electric vehicles, expect decreased emissions from the transportation sector in upcoming years.

However, all other sectors are expected to continue growing, Benco said.