Declining college enrollment troubling trend
U.S. college enrollment declined 1.1% this fall. This follows a 6.5% enrollment decline during the first two years of the pandemic.
The pandemic wasn’t the only reason for declining attendance. There was already a 9% decrease in college enrollment, between 2009 and 2020, the year COVID took hold in the United States.
There are 2.5 million fewer students in college today than in 2009. Except for wartime, the U.S. has never experienced a period of declining educational attainment like this, according to Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University in Indiana.
The reasons for this decline are many. A key factor is demographics. The number of 18-year-olds in high school has been declining for several years. In addition, the percentage of high school graduates enrolling in college is shrinking. The number of college-bound high school graduates declined from 70% in 2016 to 63% in 2020 even before the onset of the pandemic.
One might point to today’s tight labor market, which makes getting a job easier for high school graduates, as the reason for this decline. However, the data shows that many potential college enrollees are not going to college, nor are they working.
The Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development, an intergovernmental group that promotes economic growth, tracks the rate of those “Not Employed in Education or Training.” The NEET rate for U.S. workers ages 20-24 rose from 14.7% to 18.3% in 2021 and continues to climb.
Some of this “underutilized worker rate” may be accounted for by the number of young people who dropped out of school or quit their jobs early during the pandemic. And of course, the NEET rate is always higher among people who do not have a high school education — and high school graduation rates dropped during the pandemic.
This negative NEET rate trend does not bode well for the country. A nation’s economic well-being is dependent on a variety of factors. Among the most important in a developed country is “human capital,” the accumulated investment in the education and intellectual capabilities of a country. Declining college enrollment leads to fewer scientists, engineers, political leaders, capable teachers and other professionals who are the basis for a nation’s economic success.
Countries that experienced significant economic growth in the last 20-plus years realize this. China and India made great economic and quality of life strides in the last few decades by, among other investments, optimizing college enrollment in their own countries and by sending young people overseas for their college education.
In the U.S., a variety of phenomena work to discourage our young people from going to college.
The cost of obtaining a college degree leads many to question its value, as measured by a return on investment. Accusations about the inherent woke bias of college campuses are flagrant. Critics lambast expensive accouterments on college campuses suggesting tuition money is poorly spent on items like climbing walls rather than education. They question the value of research in which some faculty are involved, especially when it takes away time spent teaching. They point to the growth in administrative personnel, and they lament the fact that some college students enroll in majors that give them few employable skills.
Valid as some of these criticisms are, they have a much greater negative impact on young people and their parents’ decision not to attend college than they have among policymakers who can most effectively address them.
A healthy debate about these criticisms needs to occur, but it must include not only criticism about higher education, but the benefits as well. Absent full disclosure about the positive impact of a college education on lifetime earnings, and on an individual’s and their community’s higher quality of life, young people may hear only one negative side of the story.
As a result, we are adding to young people’s decision not to attend any college thereby denying them, their communities, and their country the myriad of benefits that accrue to those who do.