Wheeler’s contract new and a big risk, one Philly had to take
Zack Wheeler’s new contract is as close to a no-brainer as it gets when you are talking about guaranteeing an aging pitcher $42 million per year. Which is to say that it isn’t very close to a no-brainer at all. Not in nominal terms, anyway. It is a risk, and a substantial one, particularly when you couple it with the $24.6 million in annual salary that the Phillies will be paying Aaron Nola over the next seven years. Add them together and they’ve committed a whopping $66.6 million annually to a couple of players who are entering decline-phase territory at a position where the declines tend to be swift and sudden. Kind of brings a new level of meaning to the markofthebeast,doesn’tit?
Look at it this way: $66.6 million almost as much as the reigning AL East champion Orioles spent on their entire roster last season. Even if Baltimore lost all 26 of its players to season-ending injury, it still wouldn’t lose as much value as the Phillies will if Wheeler and Nola go down at the same time.
That’s not a criticism. That’s just reality. Truth be told, I don’t know quite what to make of Wheeler’s new deal, which will pay him $126 million over three seasons at the ages of 35, 36, and 37. Over the last 10 seasons, there have been 10 non-knuckleballers age 37 or older who have logged a season of 150-plus innings and an ERA+ at or above league average (100). So it can be done. But there is a far greater number of pitchers who were good at 33 and out of the league at 37.
At the same time, scared money don’t make none. As John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski looked at their depth chart over the next few years, they saw a big question staring back at them. If not Wheeler, then who? They’d already tried and failed to throw big money at Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They could have tried to do the same with Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, but he could easily end up landing multiples of Wheeler’s contract if he opts out of his contract at age 34 next winter. Beyond that? The Phillies would have been fishing in waters even more treacherous than Wheeler’s.
Just look at the headlines. Up in Boston, Lucas Giolito may be headed for season-ending surgery just two months after the Red Sox gave him $38.5 million to be their No. 2 starter for two years. New Cardinals ace Sonny Gray is battling a hamstring injury after signing a three-year, $75 million deal this offseason. Last winter, the Mets committed a combined $58.3 million annually to starters Kodai Senga and Justin Verlander, both of whom are now dealing with season-jeopardizing shoulder injuries. New York dodged half of that double barrel by trading Verlander to the Astros midway through 2023. Not so with Senga, who is just one year into a five-year, $75 million deal.
You can’t blame the Phillies for wanting to avoid the free-agent pitching market entirely. By retaining Wheeler and Nola, they at least are eliminating the vast uncertainty that comes with signing a pitcher from outside of the organization. The Phillies know these two pitchers better than anybody.