Group: More than half in 39 states will be obese

NEW YORK (AP) — Americans already know how fat we are. Can it get much worse?

Apparently, yes, according to an advocacy group that predicts that by 2030 more than half the people in the vast majority of states will be obese.

Mississippi is expected to retain its crown as the fattest state in the nation for at least two more decades. The report predicts 67 percent of that state’s adults will be obese by 2030; that would be an astounding increase from Mississippi’s current 35 percent obesity rate.

The new projections were released yesterday by Trust for America’s Health with funding from the RobertWood Johnson Foundation.Trust for America’s Health regularly reports on obesity to raise awareness, mostly relying on government figures.

The group’s dismal forecast goes beyond the 42 percent national obesity level that federal health officials project by 2030. The group predicts every state would have rates above 44 percent by that time, although it did not calculate an overall national average.

About two-thirds of Americans are overweight now. That includes those who are obese, a group that accounts for about 36 percent. Obesity rates have been holding steady in recent years. Obesity is defined as having a body-mass index of 30 or more, a measure of weight for height.

Trust for America’s Health officials said their projections are based in part on state-by-state surveys by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1999 through 2010. The phone surveys ask residents to self-report their height and weight; people are not always so accurate about that.

The researchers then looked at other national data tracking residents’ weight and measurements and made adjustments for how much people in each state might fudge the truth about their weight. They also tried to apply recent trends in obesity rates, along with other factors, to make the predictions.

Officials with Trust for America’s Health said they believe their projections are reasonable.

And New York City’s health commissioner agreed. “If we don’t do anything, I think that’s a fair prediction,” said Dr. Thomas Farley whose city banned just supersize sugary drinks to curb obesity.

Trust for America projects that by 2030, 13 states would have adult obesity rates above 60 percent, 39 states might have rates above 50 percent, and every state would have rates above 44 percent.

Even in the thinnest state — Colorado, where about one-fifth of residents are obese — 45 percent would be obese by 2030.

Listed are 2011 obesity levels followed by the Trust for America’s Health projections for 2030. States are listed in order from the highest to lowest projections in 2030:

Mississippi, 35 percent, 67 percent

Oklahoma, 31 percent, 66 percent

Delaware, percent

Tennessee, 29 percent, 63 percent

South Carolina, 31 percent, 63 percent

Alabama, 32 percent, 63 percent

Kansas, 30 percent, 62 percent

Louisiana, 33 percent, 62 percent

Missouri, 30 percent, 62 percent

Arkansas, 31 percent, 61 percent

South Dakota, 28 percent, 60 percent

West Virginia, 32 percent, 60 percent

Kentucky, 30 percent, 60 percent Ohio, 30 percent, 60 percent Michigan, 31 percent, 59 percent

Arizona, 25 percent, 59 percent

Maryland, 28 percent, 59 percent

Florida, 27 percent, 59 percent

North Carolina, 29 percent, 58 percent

New Hampshire, 26 percent,

29 percent, 65 58 percent

Texas, 30 percent, 57 percent

North Dakota, 28 percent, 57 percent

Nebraska, 28 percent, 57 percent

Pennsylvania, 29 percent, 57 percent

Wyoming, 25 percent, 57 percent

Wisconsin, 28 percent, 56 percent

Indiana, 31 percent, 56 percent

Washington, 27 percent, 56 percent

Maine, 28 percent, 55 percent

Minnesota, 26 percent, 55 percent Iowa, 29 percent, 54 percent New Mexico, 26 percent, 54 percent

Rhode Island, 25 percent, 54 percent

Illinois, 27 percent, 54 percent

Georgia, 28 percent, 54 percent

Montana, 25 percent, 54 percent

Idaho, 27 percent, 53 percent

Hawaii, 22 percent, 52 percent

NewYork, 25 percent, 51 percent

Virginia, 29 percent, 50 percent

Nevada, 25 percent, 50 percent

Oregon, 27 percent, 49 percent

Massachusetts, 23 percent, 49 percent

New Jersey, 24 percent, 49 percent

Vermont, 25 percent, 48 percent

California, 24 percent, 47 percent

Connecticut, 25 percent, 47 percent Utah, 24 percent, 46 percent Alaska, 27 percent, 46 percent

Colorado, 21 percent, 45 percent