Independents could decide 2024 race
Many such voters don’t fit into ideological box
ERIE, Pa. – Independents could have the final word in November.
In any tight race, the unaffiliated can be the difference. Pew Research analysis shows that former President Donald Trump narrowly won over independents in his 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, while President Joe Biden earned the majority of their vote in his 2020 win.
Significant shifts within the independent ranks, which include first-time voter Joshua Summers, could be consequential this year.
“I’m a stubborn person,” said Summers, a 20-year-old University of Pittsburgh mechanical engineering major who is interning with an organization in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. “I wanted to go with something I felt was the best representation of my beliefs.
“I’m very happy to vote Democrat for one office and Republican for the next.”
Someone like Summers would be tough to fit into a neat stereotype: He leans left with his concerns about climate change, yet feels more aligned with the right on the culture wars and immigration. He’s also troubled by a perceived lack of interest among the political class in anti-corruption reforms such as cracking down on insider trading.
“There’s no one who’s really pushing for good government,” Summers said.
“(I want) people who are conscious that our democracy is imperfect and are trying to improve it. There’s a lot of other countries that have better democratic system than ours.”
More broadly, there are early signs that independents are opening up to the Republican Party again after a few years of big wins for Democrats.
Economist/YouGov polling from January indicates that a plurality of independents (19%) see inflation/prices as the most important issue facing Americans. The Economist is a British weekly newspaper that focuses on politics and business, and YouGov is an international research group that’s graded as a B-plus outfit by the nationally recognized polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
Independents’ concerns align more closely with Republicans at this juncture, with both demographics listing inflation/prices and immigration as their top two issues.
Further, according to a separate Economist/YouGov survey from December, voters trust Republicans over Democrats on both inflation and immigration by double digits. Polled Democrats listed climate change and health care as their two most important topics.
“It does look like Trump has gained with that group,” Carl Bialik, YouGov America’s U.S. politics editor and vice president of data science, said of independents.
Bialik noted that approximately 71% of independents seem to have made up their minds, with 41% leaning toward Trump, 30% toward Biden and 10% vowing to refuse to vote. Still, a sizable chunk of unaffiliated voters may still be in play, with 11% planning to vote for a third candidate and 9% unsure.
“Trump is leading among independents, but it’s not a big lead,” Bialik said.
“That’s a group that could go for a third-party candidate. Also, a lot of them haven’t decided yet and could end up in Biden’s or Trump’s camp.”
“I’m a lifelong Republican,” said 79year-old Vietnam veteran Chuck Zitnick. “And, frankly, the Republican Party left me.”
Zitnick is conflicted in many ways. He’s a Catholic who is against abortion and wants to reduce the spending that’s increased the national debt. The only time he went Democratic in a presidential race was a 1972 anti-war vote for George McGovern.
In 2016 and 2020, he voted for Libertarian Party nominees, but he said he’s disgusted enough by the “bully, misogynist” GOP front-runner to strongly consider the Democratic incumbent.
“I think it’s over for the Republicans unless they make major changes,” Zitnick said. “We need the younger people.
“In this coming election, I probably will vote for Biden because I can’t stand Trump.”
Another Republican-turned-independent is 69-year-old Catherine Mott, who left the GOP sometime during the second term of then-President Barack Obama. She said she felt it was “no longer the party of (Abraham) Lincoln,” and believes it has since gotten worse.
“I could see the extreme right taking control of the Republican right,” she said, “slowly but surely.”
As owner of BlueTree VC, a venture capital company, Mott said she looks for candidates who will have a stabilizing effect on the economy. She believes she’s only voted straight ticket once in her lifetime.
“I speak on behalf of businesses,” Mott said.
“We have budgets, we have to make plans, we have to think about when we’re going to borrow money. If we don’t have stable legislative activity, it makes it a challenge for businesses to properly plan.”
Mott added that she intends to vote for Biden, viewing him as having the best chance of blocking Trump from a second term.
“Third party? You may as well throw your vote away,” she said.
Others are trying to convince the disenfranchised – such as the 10% of independents who say they won’t vote if Biden and Trump are the major party nominees – to participate in the fall general election.
Members of the Forward Party are working to promote moderate candidates for office from both major parties. The group also endorses reforms such as open primaries and ranked-choice voting.
“We’re living in an era of just massive political dysfunction,” said Craig Snyder, the Forward Party’s political director for Pennsylvania.
“We don’t want that to turn into apathy. We want to get that into something hopeful.”
For 2024, Snyder would encourage people to vote for Biden over “would-be dictator” Trump. He called Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West “quite dangerous” because they could help Trump win another term.
“There’s no path for somebody to win the race other than the Democratic or Republican nominee,” Snyder said, “and we don’t want to be spoilers.”
“There’s a saying that the fish rots from the head down. I do think a lot of this starts with dissatisfaction with the candidates in the presidential race.”