How much does Trump’s behavior matter?
WASHINGTON — With just over a week to go before Election Day, national Republican prospects have brightened considerably with the Senate likely to stay Republican and takeover of the House by Democrats no longer considered a slam dunk.
GOP success in confirming embattled Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh gave Republicans a boost, as did the new trade deal with Canada. Fear generated by an approaching caravan of immigrants from violence-plagued Honduras resonates with at least a portion of Republican voters.
Even President Donald Trump, target-in-chief for Democrats, is congratulating himself for “behaving.”
In Connecticut, Republicans are breathing a little easier too — but not for all the same reasons.
“What I have seen is Republicans and Democrats coming home,” said Ronald Schurin, political scientist at the University of Connecticut. “But perhaps there’s a little more of it on the Republican side.”
In terms of federal races, Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy appears headed for re-election to a second term against Republican challenger Matthew Corey. All five Democratic House candidates — four incumbents and newcomer Jahana Hayes in the 5th District — are ahead of Republican opposition in
Although Connecticut often seems true-blue on Election Day, independent voters actually form the largest plurality in the state — 41 percent to 36 percent for Democrats and 21 percent for Republicans (with 1 percent listed as “other”).
their races. A Sacred Heart University-Hearst Connecticut Media poll showed respondents preferred Democratic candidates over Republicans by 14 percentage points.
But Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Stefanowski has gained ground on Democrat Ned Lamont, with the SHU/Hearst poll putting Stefanowski within 3 percentage points of Lamont. In September, the gap was 7 points.
The same poll found Trump’s approval rating in Connecticut went up from 30.5 percent in August to 35.1 percent now. Trump’s most recent Gallup Poll national approval rating was 44 percent.
Partisan opinions
Republicans say Stefanowski’s jump has less to do with Trump than voter frustration over the state’s budget crisis, high taxes and a high cost of living.
“Democrats don’t realize that the people of Ansonia, Derby and elsewhere in the Naugatuck Valley are living paycheck to paycheck,” said J.R. Romano, the outspoken state GOP chairman. “They’re so interested in what’s happening nationally, they don’t pay attention to what’s happening with fellow Nutmegers 10 miles away.”
But Democrats say the connection of the GOP to Trump and his baggage is real — and not in a way helpful to Republicans in the state.
“Democrats are turning out in record numbers to show Donald Trump that they reject his agenda,” said state Democratic spokeswoman Christina Polizzi. “I can’t speak for the Republican base, but I know the Democratic base is fired up and ready to elect Democrats up and down the ballot in November.”
Although Connecticut often seems true-blue on Election Day, independent voters actually form the largest plurality in the state — 41 percent to 36 percent for Democrats and 21 percent for Republicans (with 1 percent listed as “other”).
Attracting enough independent votes will be key for Stefanowski. But it is not entirely clear whether the national climate helps or hinders his effort to win them over.
“These things tend to move together,” said Jim Campbell, a Westport GOP district leader and real estate executive. “Connecticut is not that different than other parts of the country. To the extent (Trump is) getting beat up nationally, that’s reflected here.”
Unpopular governor
Although Lamont and Democrats have labeled Stefanowski a mini-Trump, especially on his promise of benefits from tax cuts, Stefanowski has played on the unpopularity of Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, high taxes and the budget deficit.
Indeed, the SHU/Hearst survey showed the top three issues on voters’ minds are “high overall tax burden,” “state budget crisis,” and “high overall cost of living.”
Romano believes that bodes well for Republicans. “People are desperate for tax relief,” he said. “When you talk to voters, they’re not interested in Trump because it’s not about him.”
At the national level, Republicans are attempting to deflect attention away from Trump. A television ad aired nationally by Future45, a pro-Trump super PAC, shows ominous images of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer while flashing “higher taxes,” government-controlled health care,” and “unguarded open borders.”
“Voting for any Democrat gets you all that,” it intones over an image of a burning American flag.
AWhite House blast last week linked higher taxes and Democratic ideas such as “Medicare for All,” to socialism and its “long legacy of failed policies across the world.” It cites the Nordic countries as well as Cuba, the Soviet Union and China.
Trump’s insulting tweets, labeling the media “the enemy of the people,” and the prospect of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation leading to Trump’s doorstep have sharply divided the nation. Late last week, Trump had to defend himself against charges that his strident rhetoric had encouraged a Florida man on a bomb-mailing spree before federal agents arrested him Friday.
The mass shooting on Saturday at a Pittsburgh synagogue may prove to be a negative for GOP hopes if swing voters view the violence as a product of Trump’s caustic tweets and rally speeches.
Antipathy toward Trump’s behavior and record is likely to motivate Democrats to turn out on Election Day. But whether it dampens the enthusiasm of Republican or independent voters remains to be seen.
Republicans certainly hope it does not.
“In politics as in life, people get used to it,” said Campbell. “People come to accept it, and focus on issues and policy. I think the shock value is gone now.”