‘We’re not done yet’
Danbury-area COVID-19 cases decline, but officials not yet ready to drop their guard
The number of new COVID-19 cases in Danbury area towns has declined, surprising and pleasing local officials.
The drop in new cases and hospitalizations has been “startling,” said Dr. Paul Nee, an infectious disease specialist at Danbury and New Milford hospitals.
“It’s been a very pleasant surprise,” he said.
Danbury-area towns have followed the state and nationwide decline in COVID-19 cases, a trend that health experts have not been able to clearly explain. The rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, the end of holiday gatherings, and residents following mask and social distancing guidelines may together play a factor in the decline, Nee said.
Some COVID-19 cases from throughout the pandemic may have gone unreported, meaning more people than expected may have a level of immunity, he said.
“It’s not vaccination alone,” he said. “Vaccination is certainly helping.”
Most towns in the region and Connecticut remain under the state’s “red alert,” which means they average 10 or more daily new cases per 100,000 people over a two-week period.
But Bridgewater is one of the towns doing the best in the state, with an average of 4.4 daily cases between Jan. 31 and Feb. 13, according to the latest state data. It is one of 10 towns with the “gray” ranking — the best level. That town, with a population of 1,635, has vaccinated more than 16 percent of residents, the state reports .
Redding is the only town in the region under “yellow alert” — the second-best rank. The town averaged 7.8 new daily cases over the two-week period. This is down from an average high of 54 daily cases between Dec. 27 to Jan. 9.
“It’s a relief to see the numbers go this way,” said Redding health officer Doug Hartline.
He said Redding has reinforced the same messages about masks, social distancing and hand hygiene that others have.
“I’d like to think that the precautions are working,” Hartline said.
But he noted the decline in cases in nursing homes and assisted living facilities shows promise for the vaccine’s effectiveness.
The state on Thursday reported 30 new cases in nursing homes across the state over the prior week, compared 483 cases over a week in the Jan. 7 data. In assisted living facilities, 15 new cases were reported over the past week, compared to 67 over a week on Jan. 7.
‘Heartened’ by the drop
Local leaders agreed adherence to social distancing guidelines and the introduction of vaccine clinics are prominent reasons for the declines.
“Our town just continues to practice those safe practices, continues to be very vigilant,” New Milford Mayor Pete Bass said. “We’re working on bending the curve again from that second wave.”
In New Milford, daily cases have seen single digit increases or no changes in new cases per day, he said. For a while, the town saw daily increases in the teens, but that the pace is showing good signs of slowing. The town saw just six new cases on Thursday, he said.
Danbury’s two-week rate dropped from 109.6 cases reported on Dec. 17 to 30.2 reported on Thursday, according to state data.
The week after Thanksgiving was the worst in Danbury, with 467 positive tests taken between Nov. 30 and Dec. 6, according to city data. Comparatively, 87 positive tests were taken between Feb. 1 and Feb. 7.
That’s likely because the holidays are over, as well as residents wearing masks and avoiding visiting other households, Mayor Joe Cavo said.
“If you’re not around people, you’re not going to spread the virus or you’re not going to get the virus spread to you,” he said.
In Ridgefield, the seven-day average in new cases has fallen from 52.6 on Jan. 12 to 12 this Wednesday. Bethel’s positivity rate declined from a high of almost 12 percent a month ago to 5 percent.
“There may be several factors involved, but health officials unanimously agree the two most important are masking and social distancing,” Bethel First Selectman Matt Knickerbocker said in a message to the community.
In Brookfield, the positivity rate is down to 5.3 percent from 6.6, and 14-day case rate is down to 29, compared to the previous week’s reported 44.5. Case totals from the previous two weeks ending Feb. 13 was 69, down from 106 the week before.
“I’m very heartened to see, after months and months of these numbers going up, that they’re really, over the last month, they’re going down,” Brookfield First Selectman Steve Dunn said.
Dunn and Bass expressed a desire to increase the number of vaccine doses their towns receive from the state.
“We’re ready and able to give out 1,000 to 1,500 vaccinations a week,” Dunn said. Brookfield has now vaccinated roughly three in four residents over the age of 75.
Hospital staff alert, but relieved
The number of COVID patients in Connecticut hospitals fell to 535 on Friday, less than half the total from a few weeks ago. In Fairfield County, there were 154 hospitalizations on Thursday.
Danbury Hospital closed two of the four COVID wards it had set up during the late fall and early winter surge, Nee said. A separate intensive care unit remains, but there are far fewer COVID patients, he said.
“There is a little bit of accomplishment here,” Nee said. “We rode this out much better than we did in the spring, and it’s not over yet, but we’re learning how to deal with this and we hung through this.”
Unlike in the spring, the hospital has remained open for elective surgeries. Treatment of COVID patients has also improved, Nee said.
“There were people that died unfortunately, but we saved a lot more than we did in the spring,” he said.
But Nee remains concerned about how the more contagious UK and South African variants could spread.
“Everyone is holding their breath for that,” he said. “Everyone is excited [about the decline], but with a little bit of reservation about the variants.”
Nee recommends wearing a “well-fitting” mask to prevent spread of the variants.
“Everyone is very encouraged and positive about these numbers,” Nee said. “That’s the key takeaway, but we’re not done yet.”