Connecticut meteorologists predict winter outlook
Connecticut experienced the first snowfall of the season last weekend and some might be wondering what is expected for the rest of the winter.
On Nov. 25, Fox 61 meteorologist Rachel Frank published a report titled “Connecticut’s Winter Outlook” in which she took a stab at predicting this winter’s forecast. In her report, Frank concluded that this winter will most likely be warmer than average.
“There are so many variables and no two winters are the same,” wrote Frank at the beginning of her report.
In the report’s conclusion, Frank gives three important points: There will be nearaverage temperatures, which can range from 0.5 degrees below average to 1.5 degrees above average (New Haven, for example, has an average temperature of 33 degrees); there will be a near-average precipitation; near or slightly below average snowfall.
Here’s what Frank and other Connecticut meteorologists are predicting for winter 2021-22 in Connecticut:
Sam Kantrow, meteorologist at WTNH, agrees with Frank’s predictions.
“I think that the overall pattern will likely mean warmer than average temperatures,” said Kantrow, who has worked with WTNH since 2011. “I don’t expect that it’s going to be the type of winter where in January, every day during the day it’s between 30 and 35 degrees, and at night, it’s between 15 and 25 degrees. I think we’re going see periods where we have a couple of weeks where the temperatures climb up.”
Kantrow’s expectation that we will see specific periods with lower temperatures rather than lower temperatures the entire four months falls in line with Frank’s predictions.
“I think December starts off near average. This will be followed by variable temperatures in January and February, oscillating between brief shots of bitter cold and storminess followed by more prolonged thaws,” wrote Frank.
In October, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also released its winter outlook in which concluded that “above-average” temperatures can be expected in the eastern part of the country.
Like last year, La Niña is affecting this year’s winter conditions. La Niña is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that affects the weather around the world, according the NOAA. This weather condition typically brings warmer and drier winters.
According to Frank’s winter report, less snow than average is expected this year. She predicts 10 inches below average to five inches above average by location. Hartford, for example, gets an average of 52 inches of snow while New Haven gets an average of 34 inches.
“Seasonal snow is always going to be the most challenging to forecast yet it’s what people care about the most,” wrote Frank in the overlook.
The Farmers’ Almanac “Frost Flip-Flop Winter Outlook” is predicting that the Northeast will experience three major winter storms this season: one in January, one at the end of February and one in early March.
However, predicting the weather is not simple; meteorologists have to consider many probabilities. According to Kantrow, these predictions come from a large scale, since meteorologists calculate their answers from the whole country’s average.
“The problem is that here in Connecticut we’re such a small space and that means it’s really hard to get an idea about how things are going to happen locally,” said Kantrow.
Kantrow advises people to not base their expectations on just numbers but to understand what those numbers signify. For example, meteorologists might predict an average amount of rain during the summer, but when the summer comes, people might experience just one day stormy day in a sunny week. The thunderstorm can elevate the average of rain for the season while residents still experience a sunny summer.
“It becomes really hard when all it takes is the right ingredients for one day to totally change the numbers,” said Kantrow.