Data: COVID hospitalizations quadruple since November
COVID hospitalizations, often touted as one of the most significant metrics weighed by state and public health officials, have nearly quadrupled since a relative calm in the pandemic in early November as the infection rate has continued to climb, state data shows.
But with hospitalizations surging to a level not seen since the worst wave of the pandemic last winter, state officials are now downplaying the significance of the metric, insisting that Connecticut residents are in a much different place this year given widespread vaccine efforts.
On Tuesday, hospitalizations dropped by a net of three patients for a total of 834 — still one of the highest levels since early February.
When asked if she had a particular benchmark for hospitalizations to consider “stay home, stay safe” guidance, state Department of Public Health Commissioner Dr. Manisha Juthani said other factors would need to be weighed in the decision.
“I don’t think a particular number is relevant,” Juthani said, pointing out that other factors would need to be considered.
“We really have to look at the total picture. It’s not just one number of COVID patients,” Juthani said. “Having said that, of course, that COVID number is driven by unvaccinated people who make up 80 percent of COVID patients who are in the hospital.”
While the majority of the COVID patients in hospitals are unvaccinated, the percentage has declined in recent weeks.
After reaching 79 percent on Dec. 3, the percentage of unvaccinated patients in Connecticut hospitals stood at 75.2 percent on Tuesday.
Gov. Ned Lamont and Juthani stressed they remain in frequent contact with Connecticut hospital networks. Last week, the governor said he was informed that hospital capacity was not yet an issue.
“The biggest increase is not just on the COVIDrelated, but all the other surgeries … that are going on right now. That gives them a bit of a dimmer switch to control access so that nobody is denied a bed when it comes to serious COVIDrelated,” Lamont said.
While hospitalizations have been rising, the infection rate has seen a sharper increase. On Tuesday, Connecticut reported a daily positivity rate of nearly 9 percent — one of the highest rates since broad testing was established, Lamont said.
While hospitals have risen dramatically in recent weeks, the total census still falls short of where Connecticut was this time last year, when only a small number of people had been vaccinated in the first weeks of the rollout.
In December last year, Connecticut saw COVID hospitalizations peak at 1,269 before dipping slightly and rising again before dropping sharply through early 2021 into the spring.
But some experts believe hospitalizations in Connecticut will continue to rise in the coming weeks, especially after people gather during the holidays.
"We're about to see increased hospitalizations, that are going to resemble the spring of 2020. I think it kind of makes me just pretty sad that we're in this current state of affairs, in spite of having the defenses and the toolkit necessary to reduce COVID to something that could, from a public health standpoint, not be nearly as severe as what it is right now,” said Dr. Scott Roberts, associated director for infection prevention at Yale New Haven Health.
Dr. David Banach, infectious disease physician and UConn Health epidemiologist, also believes hospitalizations could increase in the coming weeks, but said there are many factors that could impact the overall numbers.
“I think, given that we expect that community transmission of COVID to be high, I think we're going to see high rates of hospitalizations. I think the trajectory depends on a few factors,” Banach said. “It depends on how this variant is affecting unvaccinated people and vulnerable people, because those are the groups that we're primarily seeing in the hospital.”
Hospitalizations have been increasing by as much as 100 patients a week since early November, state data shows. If that trend continues, Connecticut could pass last winter’s spike by January.
Hospitalizations are being reported in all eight of Connecticut’s counties, but the highest concentrations are in New Haven, Hartford and Fairfield counties, which are home to the largest hospitals.
Acknowledging the demands this pandemic has put on hospital workers, the state plans to sign a 60-day certification waiver that would allow certain medical professionals to work in Connecticut to ease the burden.
Amid similar pressure facing hospitals across the nation, President Joe Biden announced Tuesday that 1,000 military members with medical backgrounds were being readied to help hospitals in need.
It remains unclear what role the newly discovered omicron variant will have on hospitalizations. State and health officials have pointed to early evidence that omicron infections tend to present with milder symptoms than delta, which has driven the fall surge in COVID-19 cases in Connecticut.
“It looks like while it is much more transmissible, it’s much less virulent, much less risk. In many cases, more likely to be a bad case of the flu, especially if you were somebody who was previously vaccinated,” Lamont said.
However, Banach believes omicron could drive up hospitalizations if it hits certain areas and communities.
“This new omicron variant, if it spreads very quickly in communities where there's particularly vulnerable people, either vulnerable by their medical conditions or by not being vaccinated, I think we'll see hospitalizations rise. But I think there's a lot that's unknown about this particular variant as far as how it spreads, the severity of illness that it's going to cause in different populations,” Banach said. “Those are the key questions that are going to help us, you know, understand what to expect with hospitalizations.”