Study finds climate change could put New England’s unique seasons in peril
Temperatures in New England are rising faster than in the rest of the world, according to a new study that warns that the climate change is likely to diminish the region’s distinctive change in seasons, resulting in a cascade of economic consequences.
The effects of rising temperatures will be felt distinctly throughout the year, with weather-related disruptions often flowing from one season into the next, according to the study, which was published last month by researchers from Massachusetts in the scientific journal Climate.
For example, the authors wrote, warmer winters will likely result in fewer days of snowfall — a challenge for the region’s smaller ski resorts — which in turn will hasten the coming of spring and the snow melt. Summers will likely be hotter, with more frequent droughts, which will cause trees to lose some of their vibrant colors in the fall, another blow to New England tourism.
Even the annual harvest of maple syrup — which relies on the freezing nights and warmer days of the late-winter sugaring season — is likely to be disrupted by the region’s warming temperatures, the authors wrote.
“The decline of the fourseason climate will have detrimental effects on the ecology and economy of New England,” the authors wrote. “There have already been signs of climate change in the New England region from an increase in heat waves and a decrease in snowcover to more extreme floods and droughts.”
The study, written by Stephen Young of Salem State University and Joshua Young of the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, analyzed more than a century of historical climate data from observation stations around New England.
The researchers found that average annual temperatures in New England during the decade ending in 2020 were 1.8 degrees Celsius higher than in the first decade of the 20th century. That is a significant degree of warming that already surpasses the global threshold that most international experts agree temperature increases must be kept under to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Temperatures are rising even faster in the winter, especially in Southern New England, according to the study.
Connecticut saw the most dramatic winter warming of the New England states, with average winter temperatures rising 3.1 degrees Celsius over the last 120 years, according to the study. Summer temperatures, meanwhile, rose the most in Massachusetts.
James O’Donnell, executive director of the University
of Connecticut’s Institute for Resilience and Climate Adaptation, said New England’s more rapid rate of warming is the result of a weakening of the Gulf Stream due to climate change. The change is causing more warm air to flow into the Northeast from the South and the West.
A slowdown in the Gulf Stream is also likely to lead to rising sea levels around New England and more extreme weather events, even in winter months, O’Donnell said.
“On average, we’ll have fewer (snowfalls), but when we get them they’ll be bigger,” he said.
Another recent study published by a team of Yaleled researchers warned that climate change is likely to result in hurricanes moving more frequently into northern latitudes, threatening landfall in New York City and Boston. In a statement announcing the study, Yale pointed to the landfall of
Tropical Storm Henri near Connecticut this past summer as a “harbinger” for future storms.
“This represents an important, under-estimated risk of climate change,” said a statement by Joshua Studholme, a physicist in Yale’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences. “This research predicts that the 21st century’s tropical cyclones will likely occur over a wider range of latitudes than has been the case on Earth for the last 3 million years.”
As for the changes to the seasons, Connecticut Tourism Coalition President Stephen Tagliatela said the warming temperatures would likely provide a boon to some areas of the state while harming others.
For example, he said, climate change is frequently blamed for the die-off of lobsters in Long Island Sound, while at the same time, the warmer waters have attracted more black sea bass that are popular with fishermen.
“If we have a wet summer, we don’t have a good economic summer for us. If we have a dry summer, particularly on the weekends, that’s meaningful,” said Tagliatela, referring to his Saybrook Point Resort and Marina on Connecticut’s shoreline. “Same thing in the winter time for us: When there’s snow on the ground, I think people have become a little more fearful and don’t venture out.”
“If we’re a little farther north and we’re a ski resort, that’s obviously a little different scenario,” he added.
But even with New England warming faster than the rest of the planet, O’Donnell said the impact of climate change on the region would likely be less dramatic than in other areas of the country that are already dealing with excessive heat, droughts and wildfires.
“It’s a complicated tradeoff,” he said. “Some things will have more positive effects and some things will have more negative effects, but it certainly won't be as bad as in Texas and Southern California.”
The Climate study concluded that temperatures are likely to keep rising in New England due to the continued release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The warming trend, which subsided somewhat around the middle of the last century, has moved ahead at a steady clip since about 1960, according to the report.
The outdoor recreation industry employs nearly 42,000 people in Connecticut and contributes $3.2 billion to the state’s economy, according to the Outdoor Industry Association. Other seasonally impacted industries, including agriculture, logging and commercial fishing, employ thousands of additional workers and contribute billions of dollars to the economy, according to the state.