Climate Watch

By Rick Thoman Alaska Climate Specialist Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy International Arctic Research Center/University of Alaska Fairbanks

Simple computer models of future weather conditions were developed almost as soon as reliable machines were built in the 1950s and were being used on a daily basis at Weather Bureau Headquarters by the late 1960s.

Fast forward to 2023 where computer weather models in some form or another have largely supplanted human forecasters except in some very specific areas like severe weather warning or specific localized forecasts.

Computer models of the ocean surface took longer to develop, but with increasing sophistication of satellite-derived information are now able to provide a clear snapshot of current conditions, and when combined with weather models, provide multi-day forecasts of things like wave heights, water levels, surface currents and water temperature.

However, short term sea ice modeling has lagged far behind. This is not surprising. A model of sea ice conditions for a few days in the future needs ocean and weather forecast information and also must be able to move ice around, create and melt ice and vary the characteristics of ice over time, such as thickness and if and how much snow is on the ice. Significant efforts at this have been underway for over a decade but it’s only in the past few years that reasonably reliable results are available for day-to-day use.

In the high Arctic this includes the ability to forecast development and closure of long leads in the pack ice. In the Bering Sea, and other seas where ice is more mobile and generally thinner than in the Arctic Ocean, this includes skill at forecasting new ice development and at least an effort at melting ice in the spring.

The Eskimo Walrus Commission is one of the sponsors of the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook that is produced weekly in the spring, and SIWO is now providing access to one of the real-time sea ice computer models. However, because of the dependency of any sea ice models on accurate weather and ocean computer model forecasts, it remains one tool, but hunter and elder experience remains critical when working on and around the ice.