Nome Census Area population continues to decrease
Nome’s population decreased by an estimated 58 people from 2022 to 2023, according to a report released last month by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, or DOLWD for short.
The Nome Census area as a whole has decreased by 418 people since 2020, ending 2023 with an estimated population of 9,628.
Alaska had a slight increase in population in the past year, about 304 people but has overall remained stagnant the past few years. Despite this, net migration, which is in-migrants minus out-migrants, showed an outflow of 3,246 people statewide.
Since 2013 Alaska has lost more people to moving out than gained, though the losses have declined in recent years.
Alaska’s State Demographer Davis Howell said this is typical for Alaska, with about a 10 percent turnover in population yearly, one of the most of any state. “A lot of those people are last in first out,” Howell said.
In the case of rural Alaska, people are less likely to move out of state because of deep roots to the area, with a more common trend being the migration to more urban areas in the state, Howell said.
“One thing I’ve noticed not just with Nome but in the Southeast is birthrates are dropping. So there will be less growth from that factor and as the population gets older there will be more deaths offsetting the natural increase,” Howell said.
State economists try to plan for how major endeavors can alter population, one example being the impact of the Willow oil and gas project on North Slope communities, not just in the time it’s being established but the maintenance of the project and subsequent increase in population.
With a new port development on the horizon in Nome and a possible graphite mine, the Nome population has the potential to look much different in the next 10 years, but DOLWD won’t be able to predict those numbers until closer to the project’s inception.
Transient workers
The population estimation from the DOLWD is determined by the address people put down when filing their PFD, so it doesn’t account for the number of transient workers who come in and out of Nome.
Howell said recently there has been a steady drop in PFD applications in the Nome Census Area, with over 300 less people applying in 2023 compared to 2020. This could be reflective of the impermanent working population of Nome.
As of 2022 in the state of Alaska, resident worker counts hadn’t returned to pre-pandemic levels but nonresident worker counts had exceeded them, Economist Rob
Kreiger recently wrote in the February issue of Alaska Economic Trends Magazine.
Nome is no stranger to a transient workforce, with miners coming in during the summer and employers like Norton Sound Health Corporation and the Nome Police Department hiring rotational workers, who work here for several weeks and then return to their permanent home for weeks.
DOLWD data from 2022 found 14.2 percent of the Nome Census Area workers were nonresidents.
The majority of these workers are employed by private companies. Data also showed local government is the largest employer in the Nome Census Area with one of the highest local worker percentages in the state.
The growing reliance on nonresidents to fill positions can point to many things, Kreiger wrote. It could be a loss of residents, unmet training needs or industry in transition. The 2022 report showed the greatest populations of nonresident workers in industries like seafood processing and tourism, but there was an increase in their presence in healthcare which hasn’t historically employed as large numbers of nonresidents.
For 2024 Alaska has a forecasted growth of 5,400 jobs across the state, with projections showing the total job count exceeding pre-pandemic levels, State Economist Karinne Wiebold wrote in the February issue of Alaska Economic Trends Magazine.
Nome currently has 284 job openings but due to a lack of staffing availability the job center operating out of Nome is currently closed. People in the area seeking help finding employment must contact the Fairbanks job center.