Climate Watch

By Rick Thoman Alaska Climate Specialist Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy International Arctic Research Center/University of Alaska Fairbanks

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center outlook favoring above normal temperatures for both February and the 2023-2024 mid-winter season verified in western Alaska, though not further east in mainland Alaska.

The March outlook also shows elevated chances for above normal temperatures for the month, but the outlook for precipitation favors neither above or below normal totals.

The late winter and early spring climate in western Alaska is strongly influenced by the reflective power of snow covered tundra and, at least historically, snow covered sea ice. Even though days are lengthening rapidly and the sun is rising higher in the sky each day, it takes until the second half of March until that starts to show up in average temperatures. For example, at Unalakleet, the average March temperature is only about one degree higher than in February. Just on the other side of the Nulato Hills, at Kaltag in the boreal forest, the average March temperature is about five degrees higher than the February average temperature. That difference is entirely due to the dark landscape produced by widespread spruce trees “capturing” much more of the incoming solar.

For Nome, the March average temperature is only half a degree higher than for February.

Over the past 117 years, temperatures in March at Nome have varied from a high of 44°F in 1938 to a low of -46°F in 1971. As you can see in the graphic, daily record low temperatures are near -40°F through the first three weeks of the month before starting to climb, while daily record temperatures show no tendency to increase during March: from start to finish daily record highs are with a few degrees of +40°F.

March and April have lowest monthly average precipitation, but in five of the past six years March has been very stormy with lots of snow and even some rain. This is related to fairly low sea ice extent during March in recent years.