Five simmering problems that can sink Stefanowski
The overwhelming feature of Bob Stefanowski’s campaign for governor, his vow to eliminate the state income tax without raising other revenue, stands as both a strength and a weakness for the Madison Republican.
It’s enticing to people who think it can happen but utterly impossible, as everyone familiar with the state budget knows.
Hard as it may be to set that singular issue aside, other concerns will weigh on voters Nov. 6. As with the lurking problems in the campaign of Ned Lamont, Stefanowski has simmering worries under the surface that could tank his chances.
We’re not talking about his love for President Donald Trump; that’s hardly a lurking matter, just as Lamont sharing the Democratic Party banner with Gov. Dannel P. Malloy is a front-door issue. With Stefanowski, the less obvious perils relate to the narrow way he has run, offering less information — effective so far in this deadheat, but with trap doors.
1. Rejection of retail politics comes home to roost
It would be unfair to say Stefanowski hasn’t made the rounds across Connecticut at fairs and company offices. Still, he’s done it in such a covert way, avoiding media, eschewing joint appearances with fellow Republicans, that voters in this small state may be left with a sense they haven’t seen him up-close. OK, so neither Lamont nor Stefanowski resembles such hustings heroes as former Govs. Bill O’Neill and John Rowland, but Stefanowski takes it to an extreme. On Thursday, for example, he quietly visited the ESPN studios in Bristol, and tweeted photos, after canceling a scheduled appearance on WNPR’s Where We Live,
where he’d have had to sit for 48 minutes of questions. J.R. Romano, the GOP state chairman, argued last week that lack of media coverage doesn’t mean the candidate isn’t out there. But on Thursday, Stefanowski’s camp hurriedly announced a 9-day, 52-stop “Rebuild Connecticut Road Tour” to enable the candidate to “spread the message about our campaign.” Now he revs up the bus? Really?
2. Campaign runs short of money in the final week
We knew all along that Stefanowski — a mere former corporate executive, not an heir or entrepreneur or hedge fund manager — couldn’t finance his own campaign the
way Lamont has. So he’s had to spend precious peak-season campaign time raising money, and he still can’t match the checks Lamont writes to himself. As of Oct. 10, the last reporting date, Stefanowski had kicked in $3 million of his own money but had just $750,000 on hand. Lamont had lent or given himself $12 million and there’s more where that came from, to buy TV ads even in the New York-Fairfield market. Millions of dollars in outside spending on Stefanowski’s behalf by the Republican Governors Association helps make up the difference, but ask any teenager, there’s no substitute for having your own cash at the carnival. The bright side: Tight polls are smoking out those maximum $3,500 donations from Republicans.
3. Miffed party insiders and old-line Republicans stand down at crunch time
Stefanowski made a show of skipping the dusty, old-time town committee circuit last fall, winter and spring, wisely using the time to build his name recognition and raise money. Many of those miffed party insiders have fallen in line, as Republicans do, especially in recent days. But some have not. “If you’re going to lead, every once in a while you have to look over your shoulder and see if anyone is following and I think he has lost the advantage he would have had if he had done it,” said Ken Bernhard, a former Republican state Representative from Westport who left the party earlier this year. Bernhard, a lawyer, thinks the slight could hurt Stefanowski’s
ability to govern if he wins. I’d take it further and say it could spell trouble down the stretch. And we’re not just talking about failing to suck up to back-room hacks or dismissing fellow GOP leaders. Experienced insiders could have helped Stefanowski avoid pratfalls, like opposing tolls while backing privatized highways — d’oh — and claiming lower taxes could incite his 24-year-old, California-bound daughter to settle in Connecticut. They might have persuaded him to actually say how he’d cut billions in state spending, which he hasn’t done — for better or worse.
4. New revelations about his history emerge
Anything could come out about any candidate in the home stretch, but Lamont has survived three statewide campaigns and lived a more or less public life since 2006. Stefanowski’s history — including not voting at all for 16 years — remains murkier and could still emerge. For example, we could learn more about his tenure heading a global “payday” lender specializing in ultra-high-cost loans, or about his decision to become a Democrat in October, 2016, a few months after he returned from a decade overseas. It’s true that Stefanowski has gained ground on Lamont since a flurry of media reports came out about that lending company, and he’s been Teflon so far. But politics is funny.
5. Silence on social issues adds up, especially with women
It’s hard to find a question for Stefanowski where the answer isn’t “lower taxes,” as we’ve seen in the debates. That’s a calculated strategy for a guy who doesn’t appear to care, nor know much, about the myriad issues that confront a governor. We’re talking about women’s reproductive rights, criminal justice, immigration compliance, social services and on and on. It’s not that Stefanowski isn’t feeling — he’s shown snippets of deep emotion — but he’s aggressively dismissive about all details, and hardly talks about anything other than taxes and spending. That shows up in his deep polling gap with women — just 29 percent in the recent HearstSacred Heart poll — and in his gaffes on vaccinations and the state’s child protection agency. Can it add up? We’ll see on Nov. 6.