Lamont widens lead in race for governor
15-point edge over GOP rival, CT Insider-WFSB poll shows
Gov. Ned Lamont, buoyed by strong support from women and solid job approval ratings, has a 15-point lead over his Republican opponent, Bob Stefanowski, according to a new poll of likely Connecticut voters.
Lamont leads Stefanowski in the rematch in the race for governor 55 percent to 40 percent in a survey of more than 750 registered voters conducted from Sept. 15 to Sept 21, with three percent undecided and two percent declining to reveal a preference, according to the results released Tuesday. The margin of error is 3 percent.
The CT Insider/Channel 3 Eyewitness News/Western New England University poll mirrors findings from other recent surveys on the November election, which have shown Lamont and other Democrats with commanding leads.
A majority of likely voters – 51 percent – gave Lamont a favorable rating in the CT Insider poll, with 36 percent viewing the governor unfavorably and ten percent saying they have no opinion of him.
Stefanowski is less well known and has lower favorability ratings, with 31 percent of likely voters viewing him favorably, and 36 percent viewing him unfavorably. One-quarter of likely voters say they have no opinion of him, and six percent have not heard of him.
Lamont has an edge over Stefanowski among unaffiliated voters, 49 percent to 44 percent, according to the poll. The governor also has higher favorability among unaffiliated voters with 45 percent viewing him favorably compared to 33 percent for Stefanowski. About one-third of unaffiliated voters surveyed said they had
no opinion of Stefanowski. In 2018, Stefanowski was cross-endorsed by the Independent Party, an endorsement he failed to get this time around, which earned him about 25,000 votes.
The latest survey shows the same gender divides found in other polls. Female voters favor Lamont over Stefanowski by nearly a two to one margin, 62 percent to 32 percent, while male voters are evenly split between the two candidates at 47 percent.
The even split between male voters, who typically are more likely to favor Republican candidates, is a “a warning sign for Stefanowski,” said Tim Vercellotti, director of the Western New England University Polling Institute. “If he’s going to close the gap, he’s got to make inroads with male voters.”
Lamont is leading Stefanowksi across most age groups with Stefanowski commanding support among likely voters ages 55 to 64. Both candidates have even or near even support among likely voters with a high school diploma or less – 47 percent for Lamont and 48 percent for Stefanowski – and likely voters with some college background – 49 percent each. Republicans tend to do very well with voters with a high school diploma or less educational experience so “that’s a number to watch as well,” Vercellotti said.
Lamont holds a major advantage among likely voters with a college degree, leading Stefanowski 64 percent to 30 percent. “That’s consistent with what we see around the country in races like this,” Vercellotti said.
The poll shows a gap in enthusiasm surrounding the November election based on party affiliation with 84 percent of Republican voters reporting a lot of interest, compared to 73 percent for Democratic voters and 65 percent for unaffiliated voters. Male and female voters showed similar levels of enthusiasm with 74 percent of male voters and 72 percent of female voters reporting a lot of interest.
Vercellotti said during most election cycles, there’s a segment of the electorate that doesn’t start paying attention until the final month before the election. He said events like Tuesday’s gubernatorial debate hosted by NBC-CT could start to draw people in.
A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released last week showed Lamont with a 17-point lead over Stefanowski. That followed an Emerson College Polling survey for WTNH that had Lamont leading by 10 points. Asked by reporters last week to comment on the results of the Quinnipiac poll, Stefanowski said his internal polling shows a much tighter race.
“I don’t know the methodology….the results make no sense. I’m mot worried about it,” he said.