The Norwalk Hour

Airlines trying to avoid meltdowns as Thanksgivi­ng travel period arrives

- By Ian Duncan and Lori Aratani

Airlines handled with ease the first weekend in what they say is a new, stretchedo­ut Thanksgivi­ng travel window, an early sign their optimism heading into a critical holiday period is well-founded. But as the industry revs up for one of its busiest periods of the year, the holiday's peak travel days and a threat of inclement weather lie ahead.

Industry leaders have been preparing for a Thanksgivi­ng that looks more like a long, busy week of travel rather than a mad rush for the airport on Wednesday and again on Sunday - the result of flexible schedules that allow some to work from anywhere. Since Thursday, more than 2 million people a day have passed through Transporta­tion Security Administra­tion checkpoint­s, topped by 2.4 million on Friday.

The figures have outpaced last year's numbers and rival those of 2019. Less than 1 percent of flights were canceled and about a quarter were delayed in recent days, according to data from FlightAwar­e, numbers that are comparable to the 2019 Thanksgivi­ng travel period.

The holiday this week stands as a major test of airlines' pandemic-era recovery and their ability to get travelers to their destinatio­ns on time after a chaotic summer. It also will show how the pandemic has changed travel patterns, biting into business travel while opening the door to trips that blend work, leisure and visits with family.

Industry leaders are optimistic, saying increased hiring and fewer flights mean air carriers have staffing in place to avoid major delays and cancellati­ons.

“We feel that we have absolutely done a good job at making sure that we're staffed up, making sure folks are trained and having extra folks on board to be able to handle Thanksgivi­ng travel,” said Sharon Pinkerton, senior vice president for legislativ­e and regulatory policy at trade group Airlines for America. “And as a result, we're confident that the week is going to go well.”

The stakes are high for the industry. A rocky summer that saw elevated cancellati­on rates drew the ire of passengers, lawmakers and Transporta­tion Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Federal officials announced fines last week against six airlines over delayed refunds, signaling they would be watching how the holidays unfold.

“We are delighted that demand is returning like nobody thought possible, with more and more passengers having the income and the desire to take to the skies,” Buttigieg said Monday during a visit to Chicago's O'Hare Internatio­nal Airport. “But we also know that means airlines have to continue taking steps to address the challenges of servicing those tickets that they sell.”

Executives expect the Sunday after Thanksgivi­ng to be the busiest day for air travel over the period, when TSA said more than 2.5 million people could pass through its gates. United Airlines expects the day to be its busiest since the beginning of the pandemic, with about 460,000 passengers.

The carrier said it added 275 flights to its schedule Sunday to accommodat­e demand.

Outside the control of airlines, weather could put a damper on travel. Forecaster­s said weather on Wednesday will be generally quiet nationwide, although a potent storm system will be possible in the eastern United States from Friday onward.

Analysts and airline officials say the overall trend shaping the industry during the holidays and beyond is passengers' ability to work remotely, ushering in a mixture of business and leisure trips. Helane Becker, an analyst at financial firm Cowen, said that creates potential benefits for both airlines and their customers.

“It's more manageable, frankly,” for airlines, Becker said. “It enables them to be less ‘peaky.' For customers, it enables them to get better pricing.”

Fares remain high, soaring in the early summer months before easing this fall. The average of domestic fares tracked by booking app Hopper stands at about $325 — well above the $268 at the same point last year and slightly higher than 2019's prices.

During a recent earnings call, Vasu Raja, chief commercial officer at American Airlines, said the carrier is seeing increased demand during what traditiona­lly were slower periods around Thanksgivi­ng, such as Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.

“We are indeed anticipati­ng that the Thanksgivi­ng weekend, for example, will be peak, but even the days around it, we'll have a level of demand,” Raja said.

While airline leaders are projecting confidence in their ability to handle the days ahead, the pandemic and subsequent recovery have caught airlines off-guard before. Thanksgivi­ng last year went smoothly, buoying confidence, only for the omicron variant and severe weather to create weeks of misery over Christmas and the New Year.

Lyn Montgomery, president of TWU Local 556, which represents flight attendants at Southwest Airlines, said workers are nervous as the holiday season begins.

She said that even with nearly 4,000 new flight attendants on the job, operations continue to be chaotic. The company has made adjustment­s, such as flying a reduced schedule to better match operations with available staffing, but Montgomery said one mishap in the fragile system can create turmoil.

“We're like dominoes,” she said. “One thing happens and we just fall apart.”

Southwest became the first airline to surpass 2019 employment numbers this past summer, hiring 15,700 workers this year. Airline executives said they have made reliabilit­y a priority and will be able to manage the busy holiday travel season.

“We've been very purposeful in trying to make sure that we match our resources to our schedules for the whole year,” Southwest's chief operating officer, Mike Van de Ven, said during a recent earnings call. “I feel like we're really set up to perform well over the holidays as we go into Thanksgivi­ng and the Christmas season.”

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