Powell: Fed to keep rates higher for longer to cut inflation

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve will push rates higher than previously expected and keep them there for an extended period, Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday, in remarks likely intended to underscore the Fed's single-minded focus on combating stubborn inflation.

Powell also signaled in a written speech to be delivered to the Brookings Institution that the Fed may increase its key interest rate by a smaller increment at its December meeting, only a half-point, after four straight three-quarter point hikes. But Powell also stressed that the smaller hike shouldn't be taken as a sign the Fed will let up on its inflation fight anytime soon.

“It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding (interest rates) at a restrictive level for some time,” Powell said. “History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”

Powell acknowledged there has been some good news on the inflation front, with the cost of goods such as cars, furniture, and appliances in retreat. He also said that rents and other housing costs — which make up about a third of the consumer price index — were likely to decline next year.

But the cost of services, which includes dining out, traveling, and health care, are still rising at a fast clip and will likely be much harder to rein in, he said.

“Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go in restoring price stability,” Powell said.

Services costs are mostly pushed higher by rising wages, he added, which have been rising at the fastest pace in four decades, before adjusting for inflation. Powell said the robust wage gains are largely being driven by a labor shortage that began during the pandemic and that is unlikely to unwind anytime soon.

The lack of workers reflects a jump in early retirements, the death of several hundred thousand working-age people from COVID-19, and a sharp decline in immigration and slower population growth, he said.