Dems, GOP fight to a redistricting stalemate
After nearly a year of partisan battles, number-crunching and lawsuits, the once-adecade congressional redistricting cycle is ending in a draw.
That leaves Republicans positioned to win control of the House of Representatives even if they come up just short of winning a majority of the national vote. That frustrates Democrats, who hoped to shift the dynamic so their success with the popular vote would better be reflected by political power in Washington. Some Republicans, meanwhile, hoped to cement an even larger advantage this time.
But both parties ultimately fought each other to a standstill. The new congressional maps have a total of 226 House districts won by Democrat Joe Biden in the last presidential election and 209 won by Republican Donald Trump — only one more Biden district than in 2020. Likewise, the typical congressional district voted for Biden
by about 2 percentage points, also almost identical to 2020.
“It’s almost perfect stasis,” said Nicholas Stephanopoulos, a Harvard law professor who follows congressional redistricting. “If you compare the maps we had in 2020 to the maps we’re going to have in 2022, they’re almost identical” in terms of partisan advantage, he added.
The specific lines of congressional districts have, of course, changed, as some states added new ones — or lost old ones — to match population
shifts recorded by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2020.
Redistricting is the oncea-decade adjustment of legislative lines to match the Census’ findings. It is typically an extraordinarily partisan process, with each major party trying to scoop up enough of its voters to guarantee wins in the largest number of districts. This cycle was no different, but the end result is virtually no change to the overall partisan orientation of the congressional map.
That leaves the map tilted slightly to the right of the national electorate, since Biden won the presidency by more than 4 percentage points. In a typical year, Democrats would have to win the national popular vote by about 2 percentage points to win a House majority, while the GOP could capture it, theoretically, with just under 50%.
Republicans pointed to that as a victory.
“If we’re fighting to a draw on a map that everyone agrees is good for Republicans, that’s good for Republicans,” said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, which coordinates redistricting for the party.
Democrats noted that’s still a far better place than where they were after the last round of redistricting in 2011, fresh off a GOP sweep of statehouses that allowed them to draw a far more slanted series of congressional maps.
“We are in a stronger position than in 2020 and in a way stronger position than in 2012,” said Kelly Ward Burton,
executive director of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
The assessment became possible this week, after New Hampshire became the final state to adopt a congressional map on Tuesday. On Thursday, Florida’s Supreme Court ruled it wouldn’t consider a Democratic challenge to a map pushed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis before the November election, ending the last significant legal uncertainty over the maps this year.
The odds are the national map will improve for the GOP after November, however.
If Republicans do well in the election — as is widely expected — they could capture seats on state supreme courts in North Carolina or Ohio that’d allow them to redraw more slanted maps previous courts rejected. Similarly, if the GOP seizes power in some other state legislatures or governor’s mansions, the party could redraw new maps in those states in 2023 that would be implemented for the coming decade.