Summer forecast: Could be hotter, cooler or wetter

Do the spotty power outages and Milford Township’s burn ban announced Tuesday suggest a scorching summer ahead?

Not exactly, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Trent Frey. He wrote this year’s 90-day summer forecast. The general outlook for the next 90 days, he said, gives almostequal chances of the season being slightly wetter and warmer, slightly drier and cooler, or about normal.

“We’re leaning toward more moisture, though,” he said, adding a caution that “equal chances,” can be misleading. A 33% chance of above-normal conditions means there’s still a 67% chance for conditions to be below normal or a typical summer.

He said any day now, we should hear an official declaration that we’re in an El Nino phase.

El Niño is a global weather phenomenon that happens intermittently, often causing warmer and drier conditions in the Midwest.

“Ultimately it comes down to how local weather patterns manifest,” he said. “It’s a pretty sure shot, after three years of La Nina. We expect it to continue into fall and next winter. Generally for Michigan, the stronger impacts happen during the winter,” he said.

So far this year, conditions are “pretty close to normal,” he said, “thanks to a lot of wet weather in January and February, there’s still plenty of moisture in the ground assuming we don’t get any more precipitation through the rest of this week, it’s pretty likely at this point we’ll cross that threshold for normal and will be below normal.”

The NWS drought monitor is updated every Thursday, he said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Southeast Michigan in a moderate drought, because of the drier conditions. We’ll see how things develop,” he said.

In August, several communities, including Troy, asked residents to limit how often they watered their lawns.

The good news about this week’s very warm temperatures is that the dewpoint is relatively low.

“It’ll be drier overall — not desert heat, but not with that 70% oppressive humidity,” he said.

On Thursday, the NWS

will launch a 10-day summer-weather safety campaign.

“We’ll have a different topic each day with infographics on our website and social media,” he said.

One focuses on pet safety.

“Basically an animal can die of heatstroke within 15 minutes in a car, even if you left the windows cracked — especially on a calm, stagnant day,” he said. “Enjoy the hot weather, but keep your pets at home. If you see a pet in an unattended vehicle, don’t leave until the problem is resolved.”

He said now is the time to think about weather emergencies, such as the power going out or damaging storms.

“Your plan should include your pets — food and medicines,” he said. “Now is the time, especially if you’re in a mobile home, to have a plan in case you need to evacuate to a shelter. Find out which ones can take you and your pets.

Ask yourself: If a warning was issued today, where can my family and our pets go? Typically, June’s temperatures average a high of 79.7 degrees Fahrenheit and low of 60.2; July highs-lows are 83.7 and 64.4 while August’s are 81.4 and 63.2.

Metro Detroit’s record hottest day was 105 degrees on July 24, 1934.

The record wettest summer was 1986 with nearly 17 inches of rain. A typical summer includes 3.25 to 3.5 inches of rain each month. Summer with the least rainfall? A scant 1/16th of an inch in August 1894.

The record coldest summer day was June 11, 1972 when the mercury barely reached 36 degrees.