Oakland’s margin for error razor thin
Greg Kampe doesn’t sugarcoat much. That’s a perk of being 68 and having lived.
So as the NCAA Tournament Selection Show slowly creeped up — he tried to kill some time by shopping for a new putter, and hitting the driving range, and taking a nap (he didn’t sleep) — he knew there were teams he didn’t exactly want to see lined up across from Oakland in the bracket. Iowa State, for one. Creighton, for two.
Thirteen years ago, when Oakland last made the NCAA Tournament, there were only three teams, that’s it, Kampe didn’t want to face, and the Golden Grizzlies drew one of them, Texas, with one of the few players,
Tristan Thompson, who could guard Oakland’s Keith Benson. Kampe immediately put his head in his hands.
Not this year, though. Not when No. 14 seed Oakland popped up as the opponent for No. 3 Kentucky, triggering a celebration among Oakland players, having waited five long days since winning the Horizon League tournament.
Kampe was pleased, and not because he was going to face his good buddy, John Calipari. They actually don’t like that. Somebody has to lose, after all. And not because Kampe, at that point,
Sunday, knew a ton about Kentucky’s roster, other than it had two freshmen who come off the bench, and are likely going to be NBA lottery picks.
Mostly, Kampe, the face of Oakland University for 40 years, was thrilled for the exposure that was coming.
Of course, there was another thought that quickly crossed his mind.
“Not get exposed,” he said, with a smile.
That was Sunday.
A day later, after having watched some film, Kampe struck a more optimistic tone. He liked some matchups he saw between Oakland (23-11) and Kentucky (23-9), even though the Wildcats are heavy favorites, at 13.5 points.
Kentucky’s strength is in direct conflict with Oakland’s strength: Offense vs. defense. The Wildcats rank second in the nation in scoring, while the Golden Grizzlies went 15-5 in Horizon League play and swept their three tournament games because of their stout defense, maybe Kampe’s best in all his years at Oakland.
Oakland’s zone defense is tricky to decipher; just ask Illinois, which was held to 64 points, albeit in a win.
“It’s just all about defense, mostly,” said Oakland sophomore forward Isaiah Jones, who is expected to return form an ankle injury, along with senior guard Rocket Watts, two of the Golden Grizzlies’ top weapons on that side.
“We have a really great
chance.”
Kentucky has been held below 80 points just six times this season — though three of those were in the last eight games — and below 70 just once, because of a stable of star guards, including the two freshmen who are projected to be NBA lottery picks: Reed Sheppard, national freshman of the year, and Rob Dillingham, neither of whom starts.
This might be Kampe’s deepest team at Oakland, but Kentucky, that is real depth.
The Wildcats have five players who average in double figures, led by senior guard Antonio Reeves, who averages 20.
“They can fill it up,” Oakland guard Jack Gohlke said. “They play a similar style to kind of a Wright State or a PFW (Purdue Fort Wayne), obviously, kind of on steroids, as Coach
Kampe has said.
“If we can stay disciplined, as we have at times this year, that’s the most important thing.”
Kentucky also has a trio of 7-footers that might life tough on the inside for opposing offenses, so that could be bad news for Oakland’s Trey Townsend, the Horizon League player of the year and tournament MVP, but good news for the Golden Grizzlies’ 3-point shooters. Kentucky struggles to guard the 3, and Oakland has two seniors in Gohlke and Blake Lampman who can make them in bulk, when they’re on their game.
Both will have to be on their game Thursday. Kampe figures Oakland will have to make at least 14 or 15 3-pointers to make a run at Kentucky, and it will have to do it methodically. The Golden Grizzlies also will have to slow
things down on their end to limit overall possessions to the 65 range, and 60 would be significantly better. A track race isn’t likely to end well for Oakland. Oakland coaches have put a target number for Kentucky points at 74 or fewer. That’s a delicate balance, though, as the Golden Grizzlies’ offense has had their issues late in the shot clock.
Guard play often stands out in March Madness, so Kentucky has the edge there. And 3-point shooting, which could be a wash, though if the Wildcats get super-hot there (and Sheppard shoots better from 50% on 3’s, while Reeves and Dillingham are over 443%), then, well, umm, eek. That’s why Kampe said Sunday night that Oakland has a chance, but it’s going to need Kentucky to not be at its best offensively. A C performance, and Oakland figures it’s in it.
Oakland does have an edge in another area, though, and that’s veterans. This is an older roster, with five seniors, including their top four players: Townsend, Lampman, Gohlke and forward Chris Conway. Kentucky starts one senior.
“They’re a younger team, but they play like veterans,” Conway said. “They’re gonna test our zone, for sure.”
Kentucky also has the tradition and the pedigree in its favor, with its 132 NCAA Tournament wins, 17 Final Fours and eight national championships, to Oakland’s lone NCAA Tournament win, a play-in against another 16 seed in 2005.
But, as Gohlke, who’s played in a Division II Elite Eight, said this week, “It can be anybody’s day in March.”
In recent years, it hasn’t been Kentucky’s day in
March.
The Wildcats famously lost as a No. 2 seed to No. 15 St. Peter’s in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. No. 1 Virginia lost to No. 16 UMBC In 2018. No. 1 Purdue lost to Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023. In the transfer-portal and NIL era, it seems the NCAA Tournament is becoming more and more unpredictable. There aren’t any invincible teams, and surely there aren’t any invincible teams on the 3 line. Last year, no No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.
So, if you’re Oakland — which has a knack for keeping games close, even against power-conference opponents this season, and late in the year won almost all the close games — your rallying cry has to be: Why not us?
“If you’re Oakland and what you want out of this, you can’t ask for anything better,” said Kampe.