Recent special election offers lessons for GOP in Oklahoma

In November, there were 12,233 votes cast in the race for the Seminole-based House District 28. Last week’s special election for the same seat saw just 2,419 votes cast. One can read too much into the returns of a low-turnout special election, but this race still provides warning signs for Republicans.

In November, then-incumbent Rep. Tom Newell, R-Seminole, received nearly 67 percent of the vote. Newell was a conservative who made no secret of the fact. He championed school choice, tax cuts, deregulation and reduced government spending.

In contrast, the campaign of last week’s winner, Republican Zach Taylor, was marked by timidity. Taylor’s opponent lambasted him as a supporter of charter schools and tax cuts, and claimed this meant Taylor was anti-education and would defund schools. There’s not much indication Taylor ever made the case for charters or tax cuts in response.

Instead, in winning with less than 51 percent of the vote, Taylor appears to have mostly avoided sustained discussion of those topics.

His Facebook page includes generic, vague statements about how he would use his business experience to “fix the budget” without explaining how. He vowed to increase spending on health care, incarceration of violent criminals, and schools. But again, he laid out no specifics. He vowed to “defend our borders,” and touted his anti-abortion stance and support for gun rights.

There’s nothing wrong with the last two stances, but guns and abortion are hardly the most pressing issues for Oklahoma voters today. In touting those issues, rather than offering a serious vision for economic growth and credibly discussing the state’s financial challenges, Taylor duplicated the strategy of many Republican lawmakers at the Legislature. This session has been filled with votes on gun and abortion bills that, even in the best light, provide minimal benefit. Yet when it comes to addressing economic and budget issues, Republican legislators have offered no clear message.

Taylor’s campaign suggests this strategy generates little or no political benefit.

His Democratic opponent appears to have gained traction with pointed attacks on conservative policies. Republican incumbents running for re-election can expect the same. If they try only to change the subject, as Taylor seems to have, then there’s a good chance they’ll achieve the same result — declining support — or worse.

Keep in mind, Taylor was attacked as a charter supporter in Seminole, a community that successfully petitioned the State Board of Education to launch a new charter school. Local civic leaders and parents were active in that effort.

Downplaying charter support in that setting makes no sense. In that regard, Taylor’s campaign is reminiscent of Stanley Hupfeld’s race for Oklahoma City school board chair. Hupfeld, who helped launch a charter school, was criticized as a charter supporter. He downplayed his support for charters in the campaign and lost despite significantly outspending his opponent.

Republicans have much to gain by defending conservative policy successes, and much to lose when they don’t. Newell ran as an unabashed conservative Republican and easily won election in Seminole. Taylor ran as a “duck your head” Republican and squeaked by.

Will Republican legislators connect the dots?