Kershaw’s injury shouldn’t derail Dodgers’ World Series aspirations

Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw will likely miss the next four to six weeks of the regular season based on an initial diagnosis of his injured back. Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts told reporters on Monday there is no timetable yet for his star’s return but was optimistic that “[Kershaw] will be back to help us at some time this year.”

It’s never good to lose a starter such as Kershaw, but the Dodgers will be okay. They have the best record in the National League (68-31, tied for the fourth-most wins through 100 games since 1961) and through Monday were on pace to win 107 games, per FanGraphs. And yes, they are 19-2 when Kershaw starts, including 15 wins in a row, but the team deserves a lot of the credit in those wins.

The Dodgers are outscoring opponents by 176 runs, a slight second in the majors this season to the Houston Astros, who boast a run differential of 178. In Kershaw’s starts, the Dodgers have provided 5.41 runs per nine innings in support, the 14th most in the NL this season among pitchers qualifying for the ERA title. That, combined with Kershaw’s major league-low 2.04 ERA, is enough to win a vast majority of his starts.

But most pitchers in the NL would win a majority of their starts with that much run support.

We can estimate a pitcher’s record using runs scored and allowed. Using Kershaw’s regular season numbers, we would expect a pitcher with a 2.04 ERA getting 5.41 runs of support to win 87.6 percent of his games, which equates to a record of 15-2 over 17 decisions, exactly what Kershaw posted before his injury. The average NL starter with a 4.46 ERA would be expected to win 59.5 percent of his starts, or go 10-7, making Kershaw worth five wins more than an average pitcher.

But we are entering August, leaving Kershaw and the rest of the Dodgers starters with between 10 and 12 starts each for the rest of the season. If we go with the notion the Dodgers will give the rest of their starters the same run support as Kershaw not far-fetched considering they provide 5.5 runs in support per nine innings to their starters - here are the records we can expect over 10 starts for a healthy Kershaw, an average starter on the Dodgers (3.75 ERA) and an average starter in the NL: Clayton Kershaw: 7-3 Average starter on the Dodgers: 5-5

Average starter in the NL: 5-5

That’s a two-win difference over the rest of the season for a team projected to win 106 games, 16 more than the Arizona Diamondbacks who are second in the NL West.

It’s also possible the Dodgers upgrade their pitching staff at the trade deadline.

According to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, the Dodgers were interested in Rangers ace Yu Darvish before Kershaw’s back injury and also have interest in Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com spoke to one major league general manager who thinks the Dodgers might land 27-year-old Sonny Gray from the Oakland Athletics.

Of the three, only Darvish, with his 3.44 ERA, would be worth more than an average NL starter after accounting for Dodgers Stadium, winning 6 of 10 starts over the rest of the season. Verlander (4.50 ERA) and Gray (3.66 ERA) would each be expected to go 5-5.

The loss of a starter, especially a seven-time all-star, three-time Cy Young winner and the 2014 National League most valuable player, is a blow to any franchise, but the Dodgers aren’t in jeopardy of missing the playoffs by any means and should still be considered the favorite to win the 2017 World Series.