Hurricanes may pound US economy, but rebound is expected to follow
WASHINGTON — With businesses disrupted, fuel and chemical refineries out of commission and consumers struggling to restore their lives, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma likely will pack a tough double-whammy for the U.S. economy.
Nearly one-fifth of the nation’s oil refining capacity has been shut down because of Harvey, and fuel production has dropped sharply as a result, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Consumers will also spend less in the immediate aftermath of the storms. Even those ready to make purchases will face closed storefronts and dark restaurants.
Irma will cause tourists to delay — and in many cases never take — trips to Florida’s beaches or Walt Disney World. Chemical refineries also have been closed, reducing the production of plastics.
Damage estimates from the two storms are still early, particularly for Irma. Hurricane Harvey will likely cost up to $108 billion, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, which would make it the second-most-expensive hurricane after Katrina.
Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, estimates that Irma will cause $64 billion to $92 billion in damage.
While the economic toll pales beside the human costs, analysts estimate that the nation’s annualized growth rate will be one-half to one full percentage point slower in the July-September quarter than it otherwise would have been.
But repair work, reconstruction and purchases of replacement cars and other goods should provide an offsetting boost later this year and in early 2018.
“Construction activity will rocket in the
affected areas,” predicted Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Households’ spending on building materials, furniture, appliances, and vehicles will all be much higher than otherwise would have been the case.”
Catastrophic natural disasters often don’t depress the U.S. economy in the long run. The destruction of property reduces the nation’s total wealth. But all the rebuilding and restoration work tends to stimulate economic growth in the following months.
The rebuilding can take time. After Hurricane
Katrina bashed New Orleans in 2005, it took seven months for home building permits in the city to return to their prehurricane levels, according to Goldman Sachs.
Economists at Goldman estimate that Harvey and Irma will slice growth in the July-September quarter by 0.8 percentage point to an annual rate of 2 percent. But they forecast a healthy rebound,
with annualized economic activity 0.4 percentage point higher in the October-December quarter, 0.2 percentage point higher in the January-March quarter next year, and 0.4 percentage point higher in the AprilJune period.
Irma has so far wreaked much less damage than initially feared, with Citi analyst James Naklicki estimating total costs
could reach $50 billion, down from earlier estimate of as much as $150 billion.
Still, more than 7 million people have lost power because of Irma, with most of them living in Florida. The state makes up about 5 percent of the U.S. economy. Flooding from Irma could affect about $1.2 billion of the state’s crops, Bank of America Merrill Lynch
estimates, and elevate food prices.
With oil refineries along the Gulf Coast shut down, gas prices have jumped about 30 cents a gallon nationwide, on average, since Harvey made landfall in late August.
That will temporarily reduce Americans’ spending power because they will have less money to spend on other items.