Early look at the midterms

Trump’s 10 best things during first year in office

Forget the Super Bowl! For millions of Americans, the biggest spectator sport of 2018 will be the midterm elections. The political winds currently favor the Democrats, but it’s impossible to know how strong they’ll be blowing come November. Five key races can give casual fans a good sense of what to expect.

In the Senate, the races to watch will be held in Nevada, Indiana and Missouri. Nevada’s Dean Heller is the only Republican seeking re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. Indiana’s Joe Donnelly and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill are Democrats fighting to keep their job in states that President Trump carried by nearly 20 points.

These three are must-win states for the Democrats. If they win all three, a series of other close races could very well break their way to give Democrats majority control of the Senate.

If the parties split these races, the GOP would likely hang on to a narrow Senate majority. There just aren’t enough other races for the Dems to pick up seats.

At the other extreme, if the Republicans sweep all three, additional Democratic incumbents might also be in trouble. West Virginia’s Joe Manchin and North Dakota’s Heidi Heitkamp would be at risk and the GOP could make significant gains . ...

Shifting to the House, Democrats are almost certain to pick up seats because the party out of power just about always gains ground in the midterms. However, with 435 seats in play, there are no “must-win” races for either team.

There are, however, a few races to give a sense of how good a night the Democrats are likely to have. The first is Illinois-6, held by Republican Peter Roskam. This suburban district was carried by Hillary Clinton. Not only that, special elections this year have shown that the GOP is struggling to hang on to suburban voters. If Roskam is still competitive come November, the GOP might hold their losses to a dozen seats or so.

A more difficult race for the Democrats is Utah-4, held by Mia Love. Utah is typically hostile territory for Democrats but they’ve recruited a good challenger in Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams . ...

The biggest factor in determining control of the House will be the economy. A strong economy helps the GOP immensely (especially after passage of tax reform). However, a second critical factor might be how much Democrats talk about impeaching President Trump. If they do that rather than focusing on issues, it will be good news for the GOP.

— Political analyst Scott Rasmussen, writing

Thursday at Townhall.com

As we approach the end of President Donald Trump’s first year in office, the list of extraordinary things he has done — for good and ill — is nothing short of remarkable. Trump inspires such deep emotions in his critics and supporters that many have struggled to objectively assess his presidency. Some are so blinded by their hatred of Trump that they refuse to acknowledge the good he has done, while others are so blinded by devotion that they overlook almost any transgression.

I’ve tried to give Trump the credit he deserves when he does the right thing, while calling him out when he does the wrong thing. So, here is my list of the 10 best things Trump has done in his first 11 months. (In a subsequent column, I will give my list of the 10 worst.)

10. He enforced President Barack Obama’s red line against Syria’s use of chemical weapons. When the regime of Bashar Assad used a toxic nerve agent on innocent men, women and children, Trump didn’t wring his hands. He acted quickly and decisively, restoring America’s credibility on the world stage that Obama had squandered.

9. He has taken a surprisingly tough line with Russia. Trump approved a $47 million arms package for Ukraine, sent troops to Poland’s border with Russia and imposed new sanctions on Moscow for violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

8. He recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Four American presidents promised to do it, but only one actually did. This is why the American people elected Trump. He does what he promises to do, for better or for worse— in this case, definitely for the better. Even Jeb Bush tweeted his approval.

7. He withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. After George W. Bush pulled out of the disastrous Kyoto treaty, U.S. emissions went down faster than much of Europe. The same will be true for Trump’s departure from the Paris accord. Combined with his approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, and opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to exploration, Trump is helping usher in a new age of American energy development. 6. He got NATO allies to kick in $12 billion more toward our collective security. Decades of pleading by the Bush and Obama administrations failed to get NATO allies to meet their financial commitments to the alliance, but Trump’s tough talk and reticence to affirm America’s Article V commitment did the trick. NATO is stronger as a result.

5. He has virtually eliminated the Islamic State’s physical caliphate. Trump removed the constraints Obama placed on our military and let it drive the terrorists from their strongholds. 4. He admitted he was wrong on Afghanistan and reversed Obama’s disastrous withdrawal. In a rare admission, Trump declared: “My original instinct was to pull out ... But all my life, I’ve heard that decisions are much different when you sit behind the desk in the Oval Office . ... A hasty withdrawal would create a vacuum for terrorists.”

3. He enacted historic tax and regulatory reform that has unleashed economic growth. Trump signed the first comprehensive tax reform in three decades and removed the wet blanket of Obama-era regulations smothering our economy. We are now heading into our third consecutive quarter of above 3 percent growth.

2. He is installing conservative judges who will preside for decades. With his appointment of Neil Gorsuch, Trump secured a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and he is moving at record pace to fill the federal appeals courts with young conservative judges.

1. He, not Hillary Clinton, was inaugurated as president. Trump delivered the coup de grace that ended the corrupt, dishonest Clinton political machine.

The record of achievement suggests that, despite the noxious tweets and selfinflicted wounds emanating from the White House, Trump has the potential to become one of the most consequential conservative presidents in modern American history. The question is: Does all this good outweigh the bad?

WASHINGTON POST NEWS SERVICE