GOP retirements make U.S. House worth watching

DOUG Jones’ victory in Alabama last month was consequential for many reasons, including that it narrowed the Republican majority in the U.S. Senate to 51-49, raising the stakes in the 2018 midterm elections. Yet not all the drama will be in the Senate.

As one Republican House member after another decides to leave Washington, it’s becoming clear that the GOP majority in that chamber could very well be in peril in November.

Republicans hold 239 seats in the 435-member House. A net pickup of 24 seats by Democrats would turn control back over to Nancy Pelosi, who no doubt is thrilled at the pace at which Republicans are exiting.

Last week, within a few days of each other, California Reps. Darrell Issa and Ed Royce announced their retirements.

Issa has served nine terms, Royce has served 13. But they were both expected to face stiff challenges this year.

Issa won his first eight elections with at least 58 percent of the vote. But in 2016, he won by less than 1 percentage point and his district, which had long been reliably Republican, went for Democrat Hillary Clinton by 7 points.

Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is one of eight committee chairs who are leaving. The GOP advantage in his district has fallen to less than 2 points and six Democrats had already lined up to run against him.

As of Monday, 32 House Republicans had decided not to seek re-election this year. Of those, 19 are retiring and 13 are running for other office.

The last time there were so many Republican open seats was 2008, when there were 29, according to Daily Kos Elections.

Four of the departing Republicans hold seats in districts that Donald Trump lost in 2016, making them ripe for Democrats.

There also are fewer Democrats (15) who have announced they won’t seek re-election.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has seven open Republican seats rated as “toss-up” or “leaning Democratic.” Its managing editor tells USA Today that, “Most, if not all, of those seats would be in a better category for Republicans if the incumbent was running.”

Although departing Republican House members have cited a variety of reasons for their decisions, President Trump’s low approval rating may play a central role, especially since the party of the president traditionally fares poorly in midterm elections.

David Wasserman with The Cook Political Report said district-level polling for Republicans has been poor, relative to 2016, while Democrats in special elections have been outperforming by a wide margin. With Democrats energized, “districts where Trump won by 5 points look a lot more shaky,” he said.

In September, Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, a former two-term chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, met with several House members to talk about retirements. “We’ve got to find better ways to empower people where they feel like this is worth their time,” Sessions told National Journal.

The continuing departures are a sign that message isn’t resonating, in turn providing Democrats a real chance to make hay in the House in November.