For gov candidates, OK County looms big

ALTHOUGH the various Republican candidates for governor are fanning out across Oklahoma to make their case to voters, it’s a safe bet they’re paying considerable attention to Oklahoma County. Winning here, traditionally, has been crucial in statewide races.

The Oklahoman’s Chris Casteel wrote about Oklahoma County’s sway in 2014, shortly before thenU.S. Rep. James Lankford defeated T.W. Shannon in the Republican race to succeed Tom Coburn in the U.S. Senate.

“Since at least 1968, no state candidate of either party has won a U.S. Senate seat or a contested primary for a U.S. Senate seat without carrying Oklahoma County,” Casteel reported.

Lankford went on to win the county handily in that 2014 race and is now in his fourth year in the Senate, having won re-election to a full six-year term in 2016.

In 2004, Casteel noted, Coburn won Oklahoma County easily on his way to defeating former Oklahoma City Mayor Kirk Humphreys and Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony in the GOP Senate primary. Coburn also won the county in his successful general election against then-U.S. Rep. Brad Carson.

In the 1980 Senate race to replace Henry Bellmon, Don Nickles carried Oklahoma County and won the GOP nomination, defeating John Zink. That year, Robert S. Kerr Jr. beat Andy Coats in Tulsa County, but Coats won Oklahoma County and the Democratic nomination. Nickles then won Oklahoma County in winning the general election.

Success in the county has also proven important in gubernatorial races.

In her first run for governor, Mary Fallin lost Tulsa County to Randy Brogdon in the GOP primary but won Oklahoma County and the nomination. She went on to beat Democrat Jari Askins by nearly 30,000 votes in Oklahoma County (out of 194,000 cast). Four years later, the margin was slimmer in the county but Fallin still won it in defeating Democrat Joe Dorman for re-election.

In the Republican gubernatorial primary of 1990, Vince Orza won Tulsa County handily but Bill Price won Oklahoma County and the nomination. That year, David Walters lost Tulsa County but won Oklahoma County in beating Wes Watkins for the Democratic nomination.

The formula isn’t fail-safe. In the 2002 general election, Republican Steve Largent won Oklahoma County (and Tulsa County), but lost to Democrat Brad Henry in a three-man race for governor.

Oklahoma, Cleveland and Canadian counties are home to 30 percent of the Republican primary electorate. The metro area also provides the state’s largest media footprint. These factors will contribute to its importance for the six Republicans seeking to become governor this year.

The Tulsa area may loom large, too, given that two candidates live there, as do more than one-third of Republican primary voters.

To be sure, there is much ground to be tilled by the GOP candidates between now and the June 26 primary election. But if history is a guide, then the results in Oklahoma County will be worth watching closely that night and thereafter.