No clear pattern in election results

IN politics, it’s usually better to be an incumbent than not. That was still true in this year’s Republican primarily elections, but there were far more exceptions than normal.

Oklahoma Republican voters treated the congressional delegation differently than state offices. Three incumbent Republican U.S. House members drew primary challengers, and all three easily prevailed.

But in state offices, many incumbents were ousted or forced into runoffs. That included two statewide officeholders. Despite facing two candidates with little name ID running campaigns on small budgets, state schools Superintendent Joy Hofmeister failed to win half the vote and now faces a runoff. Equally surprising, longtime Corporation Commissioner Bob Anthony was forced into a runoff.

In legislative races, six Republicans in the House and Senate were defeated outright, and another 10 House Republicans were forced into runoffs.

This year, the Republican-controlled Legislature approved roughly $600 million in tax increases, and many wondered how those votes would play out in primaries. The results proved a mixed bag with Republicans on both sides of the issue facing voter backlash.

Of the six Republicans defeated Tuesday, four supported tax increases: Sen. Ervin Yen of Oklahoma City, and Reps. Greg Babinec of Cushing, Steve Vaughan of Ponca City and Scooter Park of Devol. A fifth pro-tax increase Republican, Kevin McDugle of Broken Arrow, appeared to have prevailed by only a handful of votes against an anti-tax opponent who had suspended his campaign.

Of the 10 GOP incumbents forced into runoffs, three voted to raise taxes and seven opposed tax increases. That said, several of the seven anti-tax Republicans ran well ahead of their nearest competitor. Republican voters in low-turnout runoff elections tend to be among the most conservative, which may favor antitax lawmakers in the next round. Time will tell.

The results in two statewide primaries may also be tied to taxes. The Republican primary for labor commissioner included Rep. Leslie Osborn of Tuttle, who was among the most vocal champions of tax increases. Osborn made the runoff, but drew just 36 percent of the vote. State Auditor and Inspector Gary Jones, who ran for governor touting his work with Democrats to create a tax-increase package, received just 5.6 percent of Republican votes.

Among Republican lawmakers who easily dispatched primary challengers were two who opposed the tax hikes — Sen. Mark Allen of Spiro and Rep. Tom Gann of Inola. Elsewhere, several GOP legislators who backed tax increases prevailed over primary opponents, but their message to voters avoided highlighting their tax-increase support.

For example, mailers by Sen. Stephanie Bice of Oklahoma City declared that she “took an axe to government spending,” wants to consolidate schools and “supported parental choice” in education. Rep. Rhonda Baker of Yukon supported tax increases, but her campaign website said she fought “against the repeal of the Capital Gains tax exemption and an increase in income taxes.”

So where do Oklahoma’s Republican voters stand on tax increases? One is hard-pressed to find a firm message in this week’s disparate election results.