How playoff committee answers biggest questions
Walk a few steps through the revolving doors at the Gaylord Texan, and you'll see a facade that looks an awful lot like The Alamo.
Walk many more steps across the resort's sprawling atrium, past a replica of the San Antonio Riverwalk, beyond a geyser that shoots four or five stories high, and you'll eventually find a conference room behind that fake Alamo.
Inside, the most important team in college football meets.
The most transparent, too.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will convene at this metroplex resort next week, releasing its first of six weekly rankings, then sending chair and Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens out to answer for their actions. You may not like what he has to say about your team, but you'll always get an explanation about the ranking.
That's because this bunch is candid and open.
So it was that I was recently involved in a mock selection exercise. Thirteen media members met in the same room, sat in the same chairs, even worked at the same laptops as the committee. We were among six mock exercises done, including others involving athletic directors and conference staffers. All were done to pull back the veil on the process.
As playoff executive director (and Oklahoma native) Bill Hancock reminded us, one of
the reasons that the BCS failed was that the computer rankings refused to provide their methodology. You could deduct some of what factored into their programs, but you never knew for sure.
That didn't sit well with fans
The playoff selection committee does everything it can to be transparent. The rankings are a big part of that. They let fans see the process and understand where teams stand.
So it will be next Tuesday.
But even now, we can anticipate some issues that will permeate the rankings this season. Mind you, committee members won't be thinking of such things — as Hancock and Mullens regularly reminded us during the mock selection, the committee simply determines "the best teams" — but still, some questions have emerged. And after the mock selection, I have a better idea of how they might be answered by the committee.
1. How does Notre Dame affect the playoff?
Greatly. For the first time in the playoff era, an independent is in the mix for a playoff spot. Notre Dame is undefeated with marquee wins over Michigan, Stanford and Virginia Tech, and it will be favored in its remaining five games.
Win out, and Notre Dame will surely get a playoff spot.
Lose one, and the selection committee will have to balance the quality of the Fighting Irish's wins against the quality of its loss in addition to not playing in a conference title game or having a 13th game like many other top teams.
2. Can the SEC get two teams in again?
Absolutely. Right now, the SEC has five oneloss teams — Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida and Kentucky — but each has at least one of the others remaining on its schedule. More losses are coming.
Still, the scenarios are numerous where at least a couple of those teams would finish with no more than one loss. If that happens, their strength of schedules and quality of wins would put them in the conversation for those playoff spots.
3. Could three of the Power 5 conferences get shut out of the playoff?
See, Questions 1 and 2. If Notre Dame and two SEC teams are in, then only one of the remaining four Power 5 conferences is getting a representative. If Clemson remains undefeated, too, that means no Big 12, Big Ten or Pac-12.
4. Can a Big 12 team get in?
Of course. But the Big 12 is going to need help. Notre Dame stumbling. Clemson losing. The SEC eating its own. The more of those things happen, the better for the Big 12. But the conference's playoff chances would also go up if the two teams in the Big 12 title game have just one loss.
West Virginia, of course, could get to the Big 12 title game with one loss, but in the process, the Mountaineers would beat Texas and Oklahoma. That would mean West Virginia would face a team with at least two losses in the conference championship game. I'm not sure a title-game win against a two-loss team makes up for West Virginia getting woodshedded by Iowa State earlier.
Now, if Texas and OU get to Arlington with one loss each, the winner would get a boost.
Such a win in the Big 12 title game would check several boxes for the playoff selection committee.
Conference title. Twelfth win. Victory against another playoff contender.
One-loss Red River rivals meeting at JerryWorld gives the winner a chance.
5. Does an undefeated Group of 5 team get in?
Nope. Central Florida or South Florida may well go undefeated — they close the regular season against each other — but after doing the mock selection, I don't see a non-Power 5 team making the playoff any time soon. Strength of schedule and quality of wins just don't measure up.
The first sentence of the selection committee protocol says, "Ranking football teams is an art, not a science." But the committee has made it clear that there is a formula — wins get a team into the conversation, then the better the wins, the higher the committee regards a team.
The committee might meet behind a fake Alamo, but it has made its mission clear.