Examining OSU’s bowl future
Oklahoma State can’t do anything else to alter its bowl future, but Saturday’s Big 12 Championship game could impact where the Cowboys spend the holidays.
The top three bowls on the Big 12 list of seven — Sugar, Alamo and Camping World — are out of the mix for OSU.
After that, anything seems possible, and if you read national writers’ projections, you’ll find someone who says OSU will land in any of the other four Big 12 bowls — the Texas, Liberty, Cheez-It and Armed Forces bowls.
This is where Saturday’s title game, and potentially some other games, can impact OSU’s future. And neither necessarily has to impact Cowboy fans’ rooting interests regarding Oklahoma or Texas.
The Big 12 appears positioned to get two teams in New Year’s Six bowl games, which would move every other Big 12 team up one step in the selection process, and leave the Armed Forces Bowl without a Big 12 team.
If OU makes the playoff, either Texas or West Virginia would be headed to the Sugar Bowl, and only five Big 12 teams would be left for the other bowls to choose from.
If Texas wins, it’s virtually inconceivable that the playoff committee would drop OU out of the top 12, which would require ranking some three-loss teams ahead of the Sooners.
In that instance, Texas gets the Sugar Bowl, and OU would land in another New Year’s Six bowl — again, leaving five Big 12 teams available.
It’s not a guarantee, however. If Oklahoma were to defeat Texas, yet still not make the College Football Playoff, the Sooners would head to the Sugar Bowl, leaving six Big 12 teams for the remaining six bowls.
So, what does all this mean for OSU?
Let’s look at the Cowboys’ potential landing spots, from most to least likely:
Texas Bowl vs. SEC, Dec. 27 in Houston: A bowl representative was in attendance for OSU’s win over West Virginia, and the Cowboys have a solid reputation in Houston, a popular recruiting area for the program. If the Big 12 only gets one New Year’s Six bowl, the Texas Bowl will have a bigger list of teams to choose from, but the Pokes will still be high on it.
Chances: 38 percent. Liberty Bowl vs. SEC, Dec. 31 in Memphis: A bowl rep was at the TCU game, which probably didn’t help OSU’s case. The Liberty Bowl is just about as likely as the Texas Bowl as the Cowboys’ landing spot. OSU has a reputation for traveling well, and has never played in the Liberty Bowl. Chances: 36 percent. Cheez-It Bowl vs. Pac-12, Dec. 26 in Phoenix: It’s possible that the Pokes could fall to the game formerly known as the Cactus Bowl, but it seems like less than a 50/50 shot that OSU lands here. Chances: 24 percent. Armed Forces Bowl vs. AAC, Dec. 22 in Fort Worth: It’s not likely that the Big 12 will have a team to send here, and if it does, there’s a good chance OSU is off the board before this spot.
Chances: 2 percent.