Will trade strategy support last?

During a visit to Woodward last week, U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe heard from Oklahoma farmers who are feeling the effects of President Trump's trade war with China. Their critique is interesting.

“They say, `It is hurting us, but we also agree with you,'” that Trump is right to demand a more balanced trade agreement with China and that the president's strategy is working, Inhofe said.

That strategy has been one in which the two superpowers have taken turns ratcheting up tariffs on the other's products. Most recently, Trump said he planned to impose 10% tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods that aren't already subject to tariffs. Doing so would place tariffs on almost all Chinese imports. China responded by saying it was suspending all imports of U.S. agricultural goods.

U.S. agricultural exports to China were already down 20 percent in the first six months of this year, compared with the same time in 2018. That year, following Chinese tariffs on a range of goods, the United States exported $9.1

billion in farm goods — less than half the $19.5 billion it had exported to China in 2017, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

This impacts farmers, in Oklahoma and throughout the country, who produce soybeans, pork and other products. “This is not good for the U.S. farmer,” the CEO of Archer Daniels Midland Co., Juan Luciano, said last week. “This is not good for the percentage of U.S. in the export markets.”

The trade battles affect the markets, which prefer certainty. They also impact farmers' ability to plan for the coming year. This year, farmers across the Midwest have also been hurt by adverse weather conditions.

A federal program pushed by Trump makes money available to farmers and ranchers hurt by the trade war. About $10 billion was distributed last year; recently, the USDA began enrolling farmers for $14.5 billion in refunds for 2019.

Trump tweeted last week that U.S. farmers know he has had their backs while fighting China, “And I'll do it again next year if necessary!”

Inhofe, R-Tulsa, said the Chinese seem intent on waiting this out through the 2020 elections and then being able to work with a Democratic president, someone “they can control the same as they did in previous administrations.”

But because the slate of Democrats is touting such extreme agendas, Inhofe said, he is “absolutely convinced” that Trump will be re-elected.

He said the Chinese assume their headache in the White House “is going to be over with in a year-and-a-half. It's not going to be over with in a year-and-a-half.”

The question is, will this trade war? If not, the farmers and ranchers who helped elect Trump and have continued to stick with him may have second thoughts next year.