Senate worth watching in 2020?
The 20-plus Democrats running for the opportunity to unseat President Donald Trump next year would only be able to implement their agenda if Democrats also control the House and Senate. The former seems likely, as Democrats hold a 17-seat majority in the House, but what about the latter?
The Republican advantage in the Senate is 53-47. The 47 includes two independents who caucus with the Democrats (one of them, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, is a leading contender for the Democratic nomination). Democrats will need to gain three or four seats in 2020 to assume control.
Unlike two years ago, when Democrats had far more seats to defend than Republicans, the script is flipped in 2020. Of the 34 seats up next year, 22 are held by Republicans.
The political website 270towin.com lists 18 of those 34 races as worth watching. Of those, twothirds are seats held by the GOP.
Two of the website's tossup races involve Republican incumbents. One is in Arizona, where Sen. Martha McSally was appointed in December to complete the term of the late Sen. John McCain. In 2018, McSally ran for the seat vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake; she lost to Kyrsten Sinema, who became the first
Democratic senator from Arizona in 30 years.
Another toss-up, according to 270towin, is in Colorado, where Cory Gardner is seeking a second term. He defeated incumbent Mark Udall by less than 2 points in 2014, and next year could face former two-term Gov. John Hickenlooper if Hickenlooper leaves the presidential race.
In Alabama, Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is considered a toss-up to hold the seat he won in a special election in 2017 against former state Supreme Court judge Roy Moore, who was a flawed candidate to put it mildly. Moore allegedly sexually assaulted or acted inappropriately with several women, some of them minors. Jones beat him to become Alabama's first Democratic senator since 1997.
There are three U.S. senators not seeking reelection in 2020, and two of them are Republicans — Pat Roberts of Kansas and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee. It's expected those seats will remain in Republican control, but stranger things have happened.
Another race to watch could be in Montana, where Republican Steve Daines is seeking a second term. Steve Bullock has won the governorship twice in a state Trump won by 20 points in 2016. If Bullock decides to leave the covey of Democratic presidential candidates and run for Senate, he would be formidable.
Of the 16 seats considered safe by 270towin, 10 belong to Republicans, including Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Tulsa. Inhofe, who turns 85 in November, is chairman of the powerful Armed Services Committee. He hasn't formally announced his candidacy, and was coy about them in a recent interview.
“The big question is, can we do anything in the House? I'm not sure,” he said. “I'm just going to play with the hand that's dealt me.” Sounds like a man with no plans to go anywhere.