Hospital cases down since March
The number of Oklahomans hospitalized with COVID-19 related illnesses plummeted in the last six weeks even as hundreds more state residents tested positive for the disease.
The steep decline in hospitalizations was accompanied by a significant drop in the number of people requiring intensive care. On Monday, there were 83 patients in ICU beds in Oklahoma with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID19, down from 243 on April 1.
In Oklahoma City, the In te gr is hospital system, one of the largest in the state, had 13 patients on Monday. Less than a month ago, Gov. Kevin Stitt announced that a 110-bed unit on the system's Baptist Portland Avenue campus would be part of his hospital surge plan.
Tim Pehrson, president and CEO of the Integris health care system, said Tuesday that the system probably had 40 to 50 COVID-19 patients at its peak, not counting suspected cases.
The measures taken to stay at home and practice social distancing helped, he said. The last few weeks also demonstrated that Oklahoma is unlike New York and Italy and other places more dense ly populated that
were overwhelmed with patients, Pehrson said.
“We also know that we can handle the patients,” he said. “We've gotten better at how to use PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) and we' re seeing some really positive results with things like convalescent plasma” and the drug remdesivir, he said.
“And the reason we sheltered in place as a state and as a country and as a world was not to eradicate the disease — that's going to come through a vaccination. We did it so we could have health care available when people needed to come in.”
Oklahoma hospitals report patient numbers five days a week to the Oklahoma State Health Department. The numbers include confirmed cases and suspected cases, along with the number of patients in each category in ICU beds.
On March 31, 562 people were hospitalized in Oklahoma. On Tuesday, that number was down to 218, with 93 in ICU; some days last week, they were below 200.
Oklahoma City and Tulsa implemented shelter-in-place orders in late March, while Stitt ordered non-essential businesses to close and vulnerable populations to stay home.
Oklahoma Health Secretary Jerome Loughridge said, “Gov. St it t' s Safe rat Home executive orders were intended to protect the most vulnerable and to dramatically slow the infection rate of COVID19 for the purpose of building out hospital capacity and allowing the PPE supply chain to restabilize.”
Lo ugh ridge said the policies were successful but that people still should exercise caution and practice social distancing.
Dr. Patrick McGough, executive director of the Oklahoma City-County Health Department, said Tuesday, “We are closely watching hospitalization rates as a key indicator of how the virus is spreading in the general population, and so far this month, hospitalization rates continue trending downward, which is a good sign.”
Defying models
The state's hospitalization numbers have defied statistical models developed in other states and in Oklahoma.
One closely watched model at the University of Washington medical school predicted in early April that Oklahoma would need close to 7,000 beds when hospitalizations peaked. The Oklahoma model p redicted there would be 915 people hospitalized on April 21; there were 298 hospitalized that day.
The Stitt administration has relied on hospitalizations more than other factors as an indicator of the state's readiness to reopen.
The number of positive cases has continued to rise, sometimes topping 100 per day, as testing has ramped up, so Stitt can' t point to dec lining cases as justification to reopen. However, the White House guidelines for reopening also allow for factoring in a declining rate of positive cases in terms of overall tests; that has dropped in recent weeks in Oklahoma.
The state, which began a partial re opening on May 1, is set to em bark on Phase Two on Friday, allowing bars to reopen and activities to resume such as weddings and funerals with more than 10 people.
La Wanna Hal ste ad, vice president for quality and clinical initiatives at t he Oklahoma Hospital Association, said Tuesday, “I think we should be prepared to see cases go up.”
She agreed with Pehrson that hospitals had risen to the challenge and proved they could handle patient care and prepare for a surge.
Hospitals still can't get the critical equipment they order in a predictable time frame, but state government is in a better position to supply some, she said.
“I feel a lot better about it than I did a month ago,” she said.
Hal stead said the stayat-home orders had helped but that there was still uncertainty about the spread.
“There's just so many things we don' t know about what' s going to happen with this virus,” she said.
Regarding the next phase of re opening, Pehrson said, “Will we have as light up tick? Probably. Are we going to be able to handle it as a health system? Yes. And if it appears that we're hitting triggers that would say t hat we're not able to handle that, we have a system in place across the state to handle surges and we've got a system in place to go back to” shelter in place.
“I' m very cautiously optimistic. We have a lot of highly contagious diseases that we deal with every year. And if we live in fear, I think that's the worst thing we can do. We can be cautious, we can be smart and we can continue to live. I think that's really important.”