Trump has ground to cover
Four months out from Election Day, polling shows President Trump trailing presumptive Democratic candidate Joe Biden by a healthy margin. Four months is an eternity in politics, but the gap is significant enough to produce concern among some conservatives.
One of them is Karl Rove, who was central to helping George W. Bush win two terms in the White House. “Trump is in trouble, he's behind, and there needs to be a widespread recognition of that in order to turn it around,” he said recently on The Wall Street Journal Editorial Report on Fox News.
A recent survey by The New York Times and Siena College showed Biden with 50% support among registered voters nationwide. Of note, the poll showed Biden with a lead of at least 6 points in each of the six swing states Trump won in 2016.
Biden led by at least 10 points in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump won by less than 1 point four years ago. Biden led by 6 in Florida, by 7 in Arizona and by 9 in North Carolina.
For Trump supporters who would dismiss any poll by The New York Times, a Fox News poll conducted at about the same time showed Biden with a 12-point lead. The latest Real Clear Politics polling averages has Biden's lead at 9 points.
Rove noted that the last time Trump was tied with a potential Democratic challenger was late April, and the last time he led in a poll was Feb. 18.
However, holding the office of president provides a considerable advantage, and Trump, who defied the pollsters four years ago, does have selling points, chiefly the economy, even amid the coronavirus pandemic. The Times-Siena poll said Trump “maintains a substantial advantage on the economy, which could become an even more central issue in what has already been a volatile election cycle.”
Trump had a 56% approval rating on the economy among all voters surveyed by Times-Siena, compared with 40% disapproval. He had a double-digit lead over Biden on the issue of diplomacy with China. The poll also showed that despite recent unrest, Biden had made few gains among non-white voters in battleground states. On the downside, only 41% approved of Trump's handling of the pandemic.
Rove noted that the last two re-election campaigns, for Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012, were presented as “choice” elections. The incumbents won those races, and Rove believes Trump must go the same route — presenting a sharp contrast between himself and Biden on the economy, regulations, spending and other issues.
“Will the White House have a disciplined, focused plan to do that?” Rove said. “I don't have an answer for that.” We'll learn in the months ahead what the answer turns out to be.