Stocks rally to records amid relief of news that rates will remain low
Fed: Interest rates won’t change anytime soon
NEW YORK – Wall Street rallied to records on Friday after the head of the Federal Reserve said it’s still far from pulling interest rates off the record low that’s helped markets soar, even if it does begin dialing back its support for the economy later this year.
The S&P 500 rose 39.37, or 0.9%, to 4,509.37 to top its prior all-time high set on Wednesday, part of a widespread rally that swept up everything from bonds to gold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 242.68 points (or 0.7%) to 34,455.80, and the Nasdaq composite gained 183.69, or 1.2%, to 15,129.50.
Stocks have set record after record this year thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve’s massive efforts to prop up the economy and financial markets. But the gains had grown more tentative as the beginning of the end of the Fed’s assistance came into sight, now that the unemployment rate has dropped and inflation has picked up.
In a speech that investors have had circled for weeks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the economy has met one big milestone the central bank had set to slow the $120 billion in bond purchases it’s making each month. That could mean a paring back by the end of the year of the purchases, which are meant to keep longer-term interest rates low and to juice the economy.
But Powell also cited past mistakes where policy makers made premature moves in the face of seemingly high inflation, stressing again that today’s high inflation looks to be only temporary. He also made clear that a slowing of the Fed’s bond purchases doesn’t mean a rise in short-term rates is imminent. That would require the job market and inflation to hurdle “substantially more stringent” tests.
“We have much ground to cover to reach maximum employment,” Powell said.
Stocks of companies whose profits are most closely tied to the economy made the biggest gains following the speech. Smaller companies were particularly strong, with the small-cap Russell 2000 index up 2.9%, more than triple the gain for the big stocks in the S&P 500. They often do best when investors feel more optimistic about lower rates and a stronger economy.
“Markets are loving it,” Ramos said. But he also cautioned that the longer ultralow interest-rate policy helps to prop up the markets, the withdrawal may be worse once it’s finally exhausted.
“It strengthens our view that markets will continue to do well this year,” he said. But “when the accommodation is fully removed, how bad of a hangover will it be? Just like a party, the hangover is less bad if you leave earlier.”
Treasury yields were lower, but only after some swings. After sitting at 1.35% shortly before Powell’s speech, the yield on the 10-year Treasury sank as Powell cited past instances where policy makers prematurely raised interest rates on worries about shortterm bursts in inflation, saying “such a mistake could be particularly harmful” now.
Yields later recovered a bit of their drops after Powell said “substantial further progress” has been made on its inflation goals, one of the two milestones needed for the Fed to slow its bond purchases. The other, which focuses on employment, has shown progress, but Powell did not say it had been fulfilled.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 1.30% late Friday, down from 1.34% late Thursday.