Week 1 overreactions in college football
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So are the results from Week 1 in college football.
In a sport where there is no preseason, the opening games are never going to works of art. Turnovers, penalties, special teams miscues and uneven play are going to be the norm, rather than the exception.
That leads to the inevitable misguided analysis that occurs from having a small sample size to evaluate teams.
But don’t forget, this is a 12-game season where a close win by Oklahoma doesn’t mean they’re a pretender or an impressive performance by UCLA won’t mean much in November if the Bruins can’t navigate a difficult schedule.
So with that in mind, here are of some of the biggest overreactions from Week 1.
Alabama will cruise to the national title: The Crimson Tide might repeat, but not because they thrashed an overrated Miami team.
Alabama was last preseason No. 1 in three consecutive seasons from 2016 to 2018. In two of those years, it blew out No. 17 Southern California and Louisville in the same way it dismantled the Hurricanes. And yet, the Crimson Tide didn’t win the title in those campaigns.
The year in the span they did win the national championship – 2017 – the opening win was against No. 3 Florida State, but they still lost later in the regular season to Auburn. Alabama looked great. Just don’t put the invincible tag on them just yet. Bryce Young will win the Heisman Trophy: In the same way predicting the national champion is problematic after the first week, successfully handicapping the Heisman race so early is another futile effort.
Yes, Young was outstanding against Miami and he surely is at the top of the list with Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler, North Carolina’s Sam Howell and Clemson’s D.J. Uiagalelei all off to slow starts. It’s still a long season to go and Young hasn’t played an SEC game or on the road.
Also remember where Joe Burrow and DeVonta Smith were after the first week of the previous two seasons. Neither was anywhere near the top of the list and emerged as dominant winners.
Texas is the class of the Big 12: Saying the Longhorns are back has reached the same status as the little boy crying wolf, however, the defeat of No. 23 Louisiana-Lafayette was easily the best result of any team in the conference.
Meanwhile, the other three ranked Big 12 teams – Oklahoma, Iowa State and Oklahoma State – won by a combined 18 points against Tulane, Northern Iowa and Missouri State, respectively.
Expect major improvement from that trio going forward. And then there’s Kansas State lurking. The Wildcats handled Stanford with quarterback Skylar Thompson back at full strength. It’s looking a like a very balanced race that has only just started.
Clemson may miss the playoff: It was an offensive nightmare for the Tigers as Uiagalelei made his first start after Trevor Lawrence’s departure.
To be fair to the sophomore quarterback, none of the issues against Georgia should be laid at his feet. This was mostly a failure of the Clemson offensive line to handle the front of the Bulldogs.
The good news is that the Tigers won’t face another opponent as difficult as Georgia. There’s time to sort out the problems on the offensive line and get Uiagalelei more comfortable with his receivers. Ultimately, a loss by seven points on a neutral field to a top five team isn’t a killer for this team’s lofty goals even with the ACC off to a slow start. If the Tigers win out – and they’ll be big favorites in the rest of their games – then expect them to be in the field.
Oregon will be no match for Ohio State: There’s a reason the term lookahead game exists. It’s easy for team to have one eye on a bigger opponent that is coming the following week than being focused on the task at hand. So, the Ducks went flat, especially after taking a early lead on an underrated Fresno State team.
So this week’s trip to face the Buckeyes should be a walkover, right? However, Week 1 worked perfectly for Oregon.
First, the Ducks got a needed test in the fourth quarter – which they passed – and they’ve also been a bit humbled, negating any chance of overconfidence. Meanwhile, Ohio State is dealing with a different psychology in its preparations.
The Buckeyes are a two-touchdown favorite, and Oregon’s struggles might reduce their sense of urgency, especially after a lackluster showing by their own run defense. This shapes up to be close, tense game for four quarters.
Indiana was overrated and Iowa was underrated: Let’s not write off the Hoosiers too soon after their tough loss to Iowa. Michael Penix Jr. was returning less than 10 months off knee surgery and clearly was not at his best. His three interceptions – two of which were return for scores – decided the game.
Give credit to the Hawkeyes for their defensive performance, but that is likely is the worst game Penix plays all season and he will improve. A better opportunity for Indiana to prove itself comes Sept. 18 against Cincinnati.
For Iowa, yes, it scored 34 points, the questions on offense were not answered. The Hawkeyes only gained 303 yards and the passing game still has concerns with Spencer Petras completing below 50% of this throws.
A bigger test comes on the road next week at Iowa State. Then we can make a better judgement.