Poll: Newsom likely to avoid recall
Governor has 20-point lead 4 days before vote
A new poll from UC Berkeley finds Gov. Gavin Newsom is likely to retain his office and defeat the recall election next week by more than 20 points, according to the latest survey from the school’s Institute for Governmental Studies.
The poll released Friday shows Newsom with a big lead just four days from the final day of voting, a dramatic turnaround from the institute’s previous poll, which found the race essentially neck and neck.
Since then, Newsom’s campaign doubled down on framing the election as a Republican power grab, drawing a contrast between the liberal incumbent governor and Larry Elder, the conservative talk radio host who is the top-polling candidate on the replacement ballot.
Pollsters surveyed nearly 10,000 registered voters between Aug. 30 and Sept. 6. They found 60.1% of likely voters oppose the recall, while 38.5% support it.
Nearly 40% of likely voters told pollsters they had already voted. Pollsters found nearly two-thirds of those voters oppose the recall. Most who said they plan to vote in person either on Election Day or before plan to vote for the recall.