The Oklahoman

Poll: Newsom likely to avoid recall

Governor has 20-point lead 4 days before vote

- Sophia Bollag

A new poll from UC Berkeley finds Gov. Gavin Newsom is likely to retain his office and defeat the recall election next week by more than 20 points, according to the latest survey from the school’s Institute for Government­al Studies.

The poll released Friday shows Newsom with a big lead just four days from the final day of voting, a dramatic turnaround from the institute’s previous poll, which found the race essentiall­y neck and neck.

Since then, Newsom’s campaign doubled down on framing the election as a Republican power grab, drawing a contrast between the liberal incumbent governor and Larry Elder, the conservati­ve talk radio host who is the top-polling candidate on the replacemen­t ballot.

Pollsters surveyed nearly 10,000 registered voters between Aug. 30 and Sept. 6. They found 60.1% of likely voters oppose the recall, while 38.5% support it.

Nearly 40% of likely voters told pollsters they had already voted. Pollsters found nearly two-thirds of those voters oppose the recall. Most who said they plan to vote in person either on Election Day or before plan to vote for the recall.

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