Poll: Stitt leads his potential opponent
Governor well ahead of Hofmeister, 45% to 29%
Early polling on what a head-tohead gubernatorial matchup between Gov. Kevin Stitt and state schools Superintendent Joy Hofmeister could look like shows Stitt with a comfortable lead.
Of 500 registered voters surveyed this week, 45% said they would vote for Stitt, while 29% said they would support Hofmeister.
Additionally, 4% of those surveyed said they were leaning toward Stitt. Another 4% said the same for Hofmeister.
About 18% were undecided. Hofmeister is a recent addition to the governor’s race, having announced on Oct. 7 her candidacy and decision to switch political parties to run as a Democrat.
The survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday by Oklahoma City’s Amber Integrated is the first glimpse of public polling in what could be a fierce governor’s race in 2022. The poll has a
margin of error of 4.38% and the results were weighted by some factors, including party affiliation.
Hofmeister’s decision to switch parties and challenge Stitt has stirred intrigue and curiosity in the state’s political circles, leading some to speculate about her chances of winning.
“The numbers sort of speak for themselves,” said pollster Jackson Lisle. “I think it’ll be interesting to see where those undecideds fall.”
With more than a year until next year’s general election, anything can happen, Lisle said.
He said he’ll be curious to see if Hofmeister is able to pick up more undecided voters as her campaign gets going or if Stitt is able to pick up more support if downward COVID-19 trends continue and Oklahoma is able to recover from the pandemic.
Hofmeister picked up support from 60% of Democrats, 28% of independents and 11% of Republicans, according to the poll. Stitt’s support largely stemmed from 70% of Republicans and 25% of independents.
However, 39% of independents polled were undecided, far greater than the number of undecided voters from both major political parties.
Polling has showed independent voters’ attitudes have shifted based on Oklahoma’s current COVID-19 situation, Lisle said.
When people are more concerned about COVID-19 or when the virus is surging, independent voters tend to lean more to the left. But when case numbers are down, those voters tend to shift back to the middle or more to the right, he said.
The poll shows Stitt’s favorability rating at 46% and Hofmeister’s at 30%. However, more people said they were unfamiliar with or didn’t have a strong opinion of Hofmeister.
Possible primary matchup
The poll shows Hofmeister off to an early lead in the Democratic primary for governor, although more than half of the Democrats and independents said they’re undecided.
Hofmeister will face former Oklahoma City state Sen. Connie Johnson in the June primary. Johnson ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018 and U.S. Senate in 2014.
Roughly 25% of respondents said they’d vote for Hofmeister in the primary, while 10% said they’d support Johnson.
Part of the problem appears to be Johnson’s low name recognition because 62% of those surveyed said they’d never heard of her.
As for the only other gubernatorial candidate besides Stitt who has run a statewide race, 22% of respondents said they’d never heard of Hofmeister.
Stitt will face former state Sen. Ervin Yen and Tulsa conservative Mark Sherwood in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Also in the governor’s race is Libertarian Natalie Bruno.