Will anyone dethrone Giannis, Bucks?
The NBA season opened Tuesday night. Just last week, we marked the one-year anniversary of the NBA Finals from two seasons ago.
Be it the new math or the time tunnel, we’ve crowned two NBA champions in the last 53 weeks — Lakers 2020, Bucks 2021 — and now it’s time to start the path for crowning another.
The Thunder won’t be part of the process, other than cannon fodder for contending teams. The Thunder is in rebuild mode and will vie for the NBA’s worst record. In fact, the Thunder is a bigger favorite to finish last than any team is to finish first.
It’s a strange time in the league. A lot more teams are trying to win big than lose big.
I count 13 teams capable of reaching 50 wins, though no way more than 10 could get there.
But 13 teams at least are capable, and that’s not counting solid rosters like Indiana, Portland, Memphis, New Orleans, Chicago, Toronto and New York. That’s 20 of the NBA’s 30 teams that are at least competitive.
That leaves 10 teams in the lottery race, but some of those 10 will be trying to make the playoffs instead of worrying about Lady Luck come spring. Charlotte and San Antonio head that list.
In honor of the Thunder’s plight, my preseason predictions will be upside down. I’ll list the worst records first.
Western Conference
• 15. Oklahoma City 22-60: Just remember, every loss gets the Thunder closer to another superstar.
• 14. Houston 27-55: The Rockets probably drafted too well in July to challenge the Thunder for worst record.
• 13. Sacramento 30-52: Lottery Kings.
• 12. Minnesota 33-49: Timberwolves never really get going despite plenty of young talent.
• 11. San Antonio 33-49: The Spurs haven’t accepted reality quite as well as the Thunder has.
• 10. Memphis 40-42: Grizzlies are up-and-coming, but the Western Conference is a bear.
• 9. New Orleans 40-42: The Pelicans have talent but no culture. That might work in the East. Not in the West.
• 8. Golden State 43-39: Too much is riding on Klay Thompson’s return.
• 7. LA Clippers 43-39: Kawhi Leonard won’t return soon enough to save the regular season, but the playoffs could be a different story.
• 6. Portland 44-38: No backcourt with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will fall too far.
• 5. Dallas 48-34: The Maverick future is bright, but 50 wins is too tall an order in this kind of West.
• 4. Phoenix 50-32: When you have this many good teams, 50 wins in the West is an excellent season.
• 3. LA Lakers 50-32: Surely the Lakers will go easy with LeBron and Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook. San Juan Hill does not come in January.
• 2. Denver 52-30: The Nuggets will be a load, but can they shine in the playoffs?
• 1. Utah 55-27: This seems like it should finally be the Jazz’s year.
Play-in
• Clippers over Warriors
• Grizzlies over Pelicans
• Warriors over Grizzlies
First round
• Jazz over Warriors
• Suns over Mavericks
• Clippers over Nuggets
• Lakers over Blazers
Semifinals
• Jazz over Suns
• Clippers over Lakers
West finals
• Jazz over Clippers
Eastern Conference
• 15. Detroit 25-57: The Thunder’s chief competition for the NBA’s worst record.
• 14. Orlando 30-52: The Magic probably has too much young talent to fall below 25 wins.
• 13. Washington 32-50: The Wizards are rebuilding. Congress overspends. Nothing really changes in D.C.
• 12. Cleveland 32-50: The Cavaliers should be better than this and some day might be. Lots of young talent.
• 11. Charlotte 37-45: The Hornets have a bright future with LaMelo Ball, but it will take awhile.
• 10. Toronto 40-42: The Raptors forge on without Kyle Lowry, who now is in Miami, but Toronto remains competitive.
• 9. New York 41-41: The Knickerbockers appear to be no longer a frontoffice mess. That doesn’t mean they will be vastly improved.
• 8. Chicago 42-40: The Bulls’ makeover could go either way. I’m splitting the difference, but I’m not optimistic about Billy Donovan’s squad.
• 7. Indiana 43-39: The Pacers’ win totals (adjusted for incomplete seasons) the last six years – 39, 50, 48, 48, 42, 45.
• 6. Atlanta 47-35: The Hawks caught fire in the 2021 playoffs. Do the embers still burn?
• 5. Miami 48-34: The Heat will be tough with Lowry and Jimmy Butler.
• 4. Boston 48-34: Still a bunch of talent, plus Al Horford back.
• 3. Philadelphia 49-33: The Ben Simmons saga will lord over this season.
• 2. Milwaukee 53-29: Milwaukee’s flag will fly forever, but it doesn’t have to fly alone.
• 1. Brooklyn 53-29: The real question about the Netropolitans is this — can they get Kyrie Irving vaccinated by the postseason?
Play-in
• Bulls over Pacers
• Knicks over Raptors
• Knicks over Pacers
First round
• Nets over Knicks
• Celtics over Heat
• Bucks over Bulls
• 76ers over Hawks
Semifinals
• Nets over Celtics
• Bucks over 76ers
East finals
• Bucks over Nets
NBA Finals
• Jazz over Bucks