OKC feels some pain and little gain in an annual ‘Emerging Trends’ report
Oklahoma City still has “backbone” and is still “determined.”
That sounds almost like a consolation prize if they’re handing out accolades for real estate development and investment prospects.
It’s something. It seems off, though, considering the humming local economy.
Average. Average. Average. Average. Average. That’s all we get in Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2022, the annual survey by the Urban Land Institute and
PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers).
Maybe it’s the lag time between research/interviews and publication.
Compared to the stark and dark prospects outlined in last year’s survey — researched, written and published during the throes of the pre-vaccine coronavirus pandemic — this one is positively cheerful.
But it shows Oklahoma City, despite having one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country, a healthy and engaged public sector, and a growing tech sector blazing new trails, as: • Average in investor demand. • Average in development and redevelopment opportunities.
• Average in public and private investment.
• Average in availability of debt and equity capital.
• And an average local economy. Dang.
But, we’re good enough, we’re smart enough, and doggone it, people like us!
Oklahoma City is still a “market to watch,” according to Emerging Trends 2022:
• No. 75 in overall real estate prospects, flanked by No. 74 Providence, Rhode Island, and No. 76 Gainesville, Florida.
• No. 50 in home building prospects, flanked by No. 49 northern New Jersey and No. 51 Louisville, Kentucky.
Emerging Trends places Oklahoma City in the “Determined Competitor” subgroup of its “Backbone” market
category along with Louisville, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Missouri, and Birmingham, Alabama. The other subgroups are “The Affordable West” and “Reinventing.”
The Backbone category “comprises a wide variety of interesting and enjoyable places to live and work.” Well, I sure think so.
“Though generally rated relatively lower in the Emerging Trends survey, many of these metro areas offer select investment development/redevelopment opportunities. These 18 Backbone markets have more than 30 million residents among them,” the report says. “Although markets in the Affordable West subgroup are growing sharply, most of the Backbone markets are slower growing but benefit from moderate housing and business costs.”
That doesn’t sound so bad — or average. Slow but steady wins the race, as they say.
Fellow Backbone markets in “The Affordable West” subgroup include fast-growing small- and mediumsize cities away from the “pricey coastal markets” of Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area and San Diego, California.
They include Albuquerque, New Mexico; Spokane, Washington; Coeur d’Alene, Idaho; Tacoma, Washington; Tucson, Arizona; and Sacramento, California, which actually landed in the Top 30 for overall prospects.
“One of the things that makes Sacramento attractive is that housing is available here that may not be available in other parts of the state,” according to one local interviewee. “Sacramento is still, in comparison to other parts of the state, relatively reasonable.”
We know about affordable housing in Oklahoma City compared to the coasts. It didn’t gain us much in this edition of Emerging Trends.
Fellow Backbone markets in the “Reinventing” subgroup are Eastern and Midwestern cities “seeking to modernize their economic base,” former manufacturing centers that are “moving to a more sustainable mix of education, health care, and technology.”
They include Buffalo, New York; Cincinnati and Cleveland in Ohio; Detroit, Michigan; Hartford, Connecticut; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Providence, Rhode Island; and St. Louis, Missouri.
A year ago, hardly anyone saw recovery like this coming so fast. Last year’s Emerging Trends was soul rattling: “The COVID-19 pandemic appears poised to affect almost all aspects of our lives, including the use of real estate, for many decades.”
This year’s headline? “Flexibility and Resilience Dominate the Real Estate Industry as Work, Leisure and Even Healthcare Spaces are Redefined.”
Of course, although real estate rebounded to prepandemic levels in record time, COVID-19 “has left a lasting ‘wait and see’ approach on society,” the report says.
And how.
Just today, I went into a supermarket — as opposed to darting, bemasked, in and out of a small store — for the first time since March 2020.
An awards luncheon last week, the first for me since 2019, was socially distanced, with masks on most faces most of the time.
We started back to church at church on May 23, Pentecost Sunday — but we are wee and we literally know that every member is vaccinated.
Last year at this time, I was still in near-total lockdown. Absent another spike in infections, my comfort zone will continue to expand past 6 feet.
Beyond that, waiting and seeing sums up my general approach to the rest of my life.
I’m in good company. Three-quarters of respondents to Emerging Trends surveyors reported “feeling confident” making long-term strategic decisions compared to less than half in the 2021 survey. We’re getting there.