Can Thunder make a push in the West next season?
On the final day of the NBA regular season, three verdicts stood out.
Chicago beat Minnesota 124-120. Atlanta whacked Houston 130-114. Boston smacked Memphis 139-110.
Those were the only interconference games on that day. Those three games gave the Eastern Conference a 226-224 edge straight up against the Western Conference. For only the second time in the 2000s, the East won the season series. In 2008-09, the East was 231-219 against the West.
Now in the playoffs, the East looks like it sports some bonafide NBA championship contenders. Miami, Milwaukee, Boston. Philadelphia, initially. Heck, cut Brooklyn some slack. We all hail the Celtics, but their total margin of victory in four games was 18. That makes Boston-Brooklyn the closest four-game sweep in NBA history.
Over in the West, Golden State looks great. But No. 1 seed Phoenix entered play Thursday suddenly shaky but still up 3-2 on New Orleans. No. 2 seed Memphis is scraping to lead the forlorn Timberwolves.
Is it fair to ask if the East has caught the West? Is it safe to assume that the Thunder’s rebuilding operation could be a little easier, since the Western Conference doesn’t seem its normal land-mine self?
No and no, says Sam Presti. The Thunder general manager says this season and last are no true gauges, that COVID interruptions have skewed the seasons, even moreso in 2021-22 than 2020-21.
“I think the last two years are really hard years to make many predictions off of, primarily because of the injuries in the league and COVID,” Presti said.
“You need a better baseline than this year to say that definitively because I think it's going on 22 out of 23 years where the winning percentage is higher in the West than the East.” Thunder general manager Sam Presti
“The schedule never meant more than this year, because it was like, who was playing against whom, with whom available.
“The injuries from the last two offseasons, I cannot underscore that enough.”
Presti points out the Clippers, who played all season without Kawhi Leonard and some of the season without Paul George.
“I think the Clippers have probably the best roster in basketball and probably will win a title, maybe multiple times, in the next couple years,” Presti said. “They're really, really good, but they're playing without a lot of their weapons. They still have a lot of veteran role players that are really, really good players, enough to keep them in the conversation, but those two guys are all-world.
“Golden State had injuries through the year, on down the line. Everyone. But the East had it, too. But I think you've got to see — you need a better baseline than this year to say that definitively because I think it's going on 22 out of 23 years where the winning percentage is higher in the West than the East.”
It's not just that the West has had the better winning percentage 21 of the last 23 years. It's also that the West's best beats the East's best consistently. Counting games only matching teams in the top eight of the final conference standings, the West has a better record against the East all 23 years of this century. Usually, significantly better.
So no. Don't count on the West being easier for a Thunder uprising.
“You cannot flinch in the Western Conference,” Presti said. “You cannot flinch. They're coming at you every night and you have to be able to hold your spots, and we have to be able to do that figuratively and literally over the next several years if we want to accomplish what we want.”
That's more ammunition for Presti's argument that shortcuts lead to shortcomings, in NBA rebuilding.
Certainly, the West looks in great shape for several years.
Minnesota, Memphis and New Orleans are up-and-comers making playoff waves. Presti mentioned the Clippers. Phoenix had the league's best record, by a wide margin. Golden State is Golden State. Dallas has Luka Doncic and Denver has Nikola Jokic. The Lakers have been known to attract talent.
Even if the Thunder roster improves dramatically in the next year or two, there isn't much space in First Class.
Typical Western Conference dominance.
“I've given up trying to figure out why that is,” Presti said. “I have no idea. If it changes, that's better for the Thunder. But I don't know that that's the case. You just look at the young players that are playing in the West now that are really playing well. I mean, it's great for the game.”
Not so great for the Thunder rebuilding job.
Berry Tramel: Berry can be reached at 405-760-8080 or at btramel@oklahoman.com. He can be heard Monday through Friday from 4:40-5:20 p.m. on The Sports Animal radio network, including FM-98.1. Support his work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.