US population center trending toward South
ORLANDO, Fla. – The U.S. population center is on track this decade to take a southern swerve for the first time in history, and it’s because of people like Owen Glick, who moved from California to Florida more than a year ago.
Last year, the South outgrew other U.S. regions by well more than 1 million people through births outpacing deaths and domestic and international migration, according to population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Northeast and Midwest lost residents, and the West grew by an anemic 153,000 people, primarily because a large number of residents left for a different U.S. region. The West would have lost population if not for immigrants and births outpacing deaths.
In contrast, the South grew by 1.3 million new residents, and six of the 10 U.S. states with the biggest growth last year were in the South, led by Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia.
Experts aren’t sure at this point if the dramatic pull of the South is a shortterm change spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic or a long-term trend, or even what impact it will have on the reallocation of political power through redistricting after the 2030 census. Because of delays caused by the pandemic, changes were made in how the Census Bureau has calculated the estimates this decade.
But experts say the Southern allure has to do with a mix of housing affordability, lower taxes, the popularity of remote work during the pandemic era and baby boomers retiring.
Glick, 56, and his then-partner moved to the Orlando area from metro San Diego in December 2021 after he retired from his job in corporate sales. They had been making regular trips to central Florida before their move, to check on rental properties they had purchased because they were more affordable in the Sunshine State than in Southern California.
While the cost of housing and food is lower than in California, there are hidden home upkeep costs in Florida, such as the need to paint more often because of the unrelenting sun and higher utility bills from year-round air conditioning, he said.
“You’re in better financial shape in terms of prices here, but there are more expenditures to maintain properties,” Glick said.
Glick was among the 233,000 people who left a Western state and planted roots in a different region from mid-2021 to mid-2022. He joined the ranks of the almost 868,000 people who moved to a Southern state from another region.
If the trend continues through the rest of this decade, by 2030 the mean center of the U.S. population will head due south from a rural county in the Missouri Ozarks, without a westward extension for the first time in history, according to urban planner Alex Zakrewsky, who models the population center.
Since the population center was first calculated to be in Chestertown, Maryland, in 1790, it has moved continuously westward, though it started taking a more southwestern tilt in the 20th century as the spread of air conditioning made the South more livable.