Credit Brett Yormark for lifting Big 12 ahead of the Pac-12
The Big 12/Pac-12 drama continues, virtually all of it related to television contracts.
The Big 12 has a deal secured after the current contract expires in 2025. The Pac-12 does not have a contract after the current deal expires in summer 2024.
Hence the anxiety out West and the speculation that some Pac-12 members might bolt for the Big 12. Who knows if it will happen? In recent weeks, I’ve gone from rather optimistic that the Pac-12 will stay together to becoming optimistic that the Big 12 indeed could slice off a few members,
And again, we have to credit Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark for putting his conference in a more advantageous position.
There is no tangible reason for the Big 12 to have jumped ahead of the Pac-12 in securing a new contract with ESPN and Fox, other than market savvy and negotiating moxie.
“Brett’s done an extraordinary job in a short amount of time,” said Houston athletic director Chris Pezman, whose school joins the Big 12 on July 1. “That TV deal, he doesn’t get enough credit. He has put us in an even more favorable position.”
Yormark appears to have known that the major networks had only so much money to spend. Fox went all in on the Big Ten, and NBC and CBS followed suit. With ESPN committed to the Southeastern and Atlantic Coast conferences, and other sports television rights coming up for bid, the money was getting tight.
The Big 12 and Pac-12 weren’t likely to both reap a top-level commitment from the networks. Yormark, hired in July, got on his horse and worked a deal with ESPN and FOX, which is not as robust as the Big Ten’s and SEC’s but pays more than the Big 12 previously was getting with OU and Texas in the conference, which they won’t be going forward.
And here’s why Yormark’s negotiations are so impressive. He was not coming from a position of strength. The data does not support the notion that more eyeballs will watch the remaining (and new) Big 12 members than the remaining Pac-12 (and potentially new) members.
I researched the last two years of college football viewership. I compared apples to apple — same time slot, same network. I did not use the departing schools of either league (OU, Texas, UCLA, Southern Cal).
There’s not a discernible difference between the conferences. Oregon appears to be the biggest draw among the Big 12 and Pac-12 combined; after that, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian and Baylor from the Big 12, and Utah and Washington from the Pac-12, are about the same. Brigham Young, which joins the Big 12 on July 1, probably will join that circle.
But the point is, the Big 12 did not have a bunch of viewership numbers to tout, at the Pac-12’s expense. And still Yormark leapfrogged his league ahead of the Pac-12.
Here are the parameters of my data. I used only the last two years, since 2020 was a strange season and going back to 2019 seems a long time ago.
I used only Saturday games, since the data is limited on Thursdays/Friday games. I didn’t use bowl games or conference championship games. I didn’t bother with the 11 a.m. window, since Pac-12 teams hardly ever land in such a spot, and the same with the late-night window, since the Big 12 rarely sees midnight.
I did list non-conference games, even though they can be misleading. Utah-Florida and Georgia-Oregon drew big numbers on ESPN last season. Hard to tell how much of that was Utah and Oregon or how much was the SEC. But credit Utah and Oregon for scheduling such games.
Anyway, here are the numbers, with the viewership listed in millions.
Fox afternoon: *-TCU-Iowa State 4.34M, *-Washington State-Wisconsin 3.9M, *-Oklahoma State-Kansas State 3.4M, *-Oklahoma State-Baylor 2.4M, Colorado-Oregon 2.67M, Oklahoma State-Iowa State 2.65M, *OregonBrigham Young 2.6M, *Oregon-Washington State 2.27M, Iowa State-Baylor 2.0M, Baylor-TCU 1.8M.
Fox prime time: *-Washington-Oregon 3.6M, Stanford-Notre Dame 2.7M,
*- Kansas State-Kansas 2.32M, Oklahoma State-Texas Tech 1.9M, Oklahoma State-TCU 1.37M.
ABC afternoon: *-Oregon-Georgia 6.2M, *-Iowa State-Iowa 3.9M, Oregon State-Oregon 3.56M, Oregon-Stanford 2.64M, *Oklahoma State-TCU 2.1M.
ESPN afternoon: Baylor-Brigham Young 1.44M, West Virginia-Maryland 1.35M, Oregon State-Oregon 1.33M, Oklahoma State-West Virginia 1.1M, *-Oregon-Colorado 0.96M.
ESPN prime time: *-Utah-Florida 2.95M, Texas Tech-Houston 0.83M, TCU-Texas Tech 0.625M.
ESPN2 afternoon: Baylor-Oklahoma State 1.0M, *-Iowa State-Kansas 0.86M, Iowa State-Texas Tech 0.67M, West Virginia-Texas Tech 0.66M, *-Oregon State-Arizona State 0.48M.
Fox Sports1 afternoon: *Oklahoma State-Texas Tech 1.6M, *Oregon-California 0.74M, *-Oklahoma State-Kansas 0.73M, Baylor-Kansas State 0.66M, *-Houston-Texas Tech 0.6M, *-West Virginia-Texas Tech 0.5M, Washington State-Brigham Young 0.4M, Washington State-Arizona State 0.33M. *-denotes 2022.
There are a ton of factors. Head-tohead competition on other network. How well a team is doing. Other games scheduled at the same time.
But it’s a lot of good information, and nothing suggests that America is clamoring to watch the Big 12 over the Pac-12. Seems about a wash.
Yet the Big 12 has a television contract that it is relatively pleased with, and the clock is ticking on a Pac-12 deal. Credit Brett Yormark.