Voters see threat to democracy but differ on who poses threat
The stakes for the 2024 election couldn’t be higher, according to both major candidates for president.
President Joe Biden has said that nothing short of American democracy is on the line and declared his opponent “willing to sacrifice democracy to put himself in power.”
Former President Donald Trump, in turn, has said that “if we don’t win this election, I don’t think you’re going to have another election in this country.” He also has said that it is Biden who threatens democracy by “weaponizing government” against him.
A poll from The Associated PressNORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that “62% of adults say democracy in the U.S. could be at risk depending on who wins next fall.” But like the candidates for president, they are divided on who represents the bigger threat.
And with issues like immigration, abortion and inflation competing for attention, how much will the larger issue of democracy factor into decision-making? The short answer is: It depends on how you ask and whom you ask.
The latest NBC News survey illustrates this point. On the question of what is “the most important issue facing the country,” inflation and immigration rank ahead of threats to democracy.
But when it’s framed as an issue so important that you’d vote for or against a candidate solely on that basis, protecting democracy ranks first, followed by immigration and abortion.
Concerns about democracy’s future helped Democrats in 2022
The saliency of democracy to vote choice was seen in the 2022 elections and was particularly important for Democrats, as it is in 2024. In 2022, prominent election deniers lost races for U.S. Senate, governor and for the office that oversees state elections, secretary of state.
Yet, more than 60% of Republicans say Biden was not the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election, a belief based on false statements made by Trump. To really believe that, though, is to feel that the republic in which we live is not truly democratic.
In fact, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say the state of democracy is not working well.
And yet, it is Democrats and Biden voters who, in poll after poll, say “threats to democracy” is a top voting issue for them.
Consider the latest national survey from Emerson College: Biden voters rank “threats to democracy” (19%) second only to the economy (27%) as the most important issue facing the United States.
Trump voters, on the other hand, are significantly more likely to prioritize the economy (39%) and immigration (37%) over “threats to democracy” (4%).
Voters who are undecided overwhelmingly say the economy (50%) is the top issue.
It’s no surprise to hear both parties talking about freedom. In fact, that is the top association voters across the spectrum have when they think of the word “democracy,” according to research by Navigator.
And the truth about freedom is that it can mean many things – and, in fact, does mean different things to Democrats than Republicans in this context. For a Democratic voter, freedom may mean the right to make decisions about abortion without government interference, voting rights or the ability to protest. For a Republican voter, freedom may mean the right to bear arms, to speak without being canceled or censored or ability of the free market to operate without excessive government interference.
So, on one level, the preservation of democracy in our country is a big issue that may seem less important to people’s lives than, say, the price of groceries. But it also can mean for many voters the preservation of the things they value about living in our country – some of which may be personal and consequential when they decide how they will vote in 2024.
Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, was one of two lead pollsters for Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign. She also is a pollster for the Democratic National Committee. Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research, is a leading public opinion pollster known for her understanding of swing voters, particularly women.