Are you placing God’s armor in the right spots?

Abraham Wald was a mathematician in World War II who is best known for his work that helped minimize damage to the Allied bomber aircrafts.

Many aircraft on dangerous missions were shot down and never returned home. When aircraft would return from their missions, the analysis of the damage helped inform how to reinforce these aircraft for future missions.

Other researchers simply saw where most bullet holes in the planes were and surmised these were the areas in which reinforcement was needed. Wald, however, was the only one who took “survivorship bias” into account to paint a more accurate and comprehensive picture.

Survivorship bias is a logical error - like all logical errors - that leads to incorrect conclusions. It focuses all the attention on the survivors, which leads to incomplete data, which in turn leads to faulty conclusions.

Abraham Wald observed the exact same information the other researchers had observed and came to the opposite conclusion. His colleagues wanted to concentrate the armor on the places getting hit the most. Wald believed the concentration of armor should be at the places where the planes that survived didn’t get hit. He concluded that the aircraft not returning home were not returning home because they were hit in those places.

His statistical analysis and ability to fight the survivorship bias, led to the right amount of armor making it to the appropriate spots on the planes. His efforts greatly contributed to the Allies success in World War II.

Wald’s work teaches us to not jump to conclusions too quickly, don’t always follow the crowd, analyze all available data, learn to ask the right questions, and place your armor in the right spots. Ephesians 6 talks about the armor of God. I encourage you to read this passage of scripture and ask yourself if you’re placing God’s armor in the right spots in your life.

Chaplain’s Corner Chaplain Capt. Ryan Pearse