Don’t get your hopes up for a raise

Many companies are giving bonuses to avoid raising fixed costs.

No, those much-publicized employee bonuses don’t mean you should expect a raise this year.

The White House has long said that corporate tax cuts will trickle down to American workers and pad their paychecks. And just as Congress passed a bill to enact them, a handful of companies announced employee bonuses they said were proof of that.

But those one-time bumps, whatever really precipitated them, don’t mean higher wages are around the corner. Even the White House said it could take eight years for the cuts to boost wages much. And for now, employers are in no hurry to raise them.

For the past five years straight, employers have reported giving 3 percent raises to most workers — even as the economy has improved, the labor market has tightened, and unemployment has fallen. Only stellar performers get bigger bumps.

This year is no different. Aon’s annual survey from last year found the trend was continuing into this year, with most companies reporting 3 percent raises for 2018.

“Companies are really hesitant to give raises,” said Paula Harvey, the vice president of human resources at Schulte Building Systems, a building manufacturer near Houston.

Like many companies, Schulte had a good 2017. But despite low local unemployment and the promise of a windfall from the tax law, it doesn’t plan to give bigger raises than the standard 3 percent, Harvey said. Instead, employees will get bonuses for their hard work in 2017.

The tax overhaul passed Congress too late to affect 2018 compensation budgets. “Companies, at least the ones I’ve talked to, are still in the process of analyzing the rules and the implications,” said John Bremen, a managing director of human capital at Willis Towers Watson.

But the legislation might not have made a difference. Employers have become attached to that 3 percent raise they’ve given for the past few years, Bremen said. He doesn’t see that changing.

A tight labor market no longer forces employers to pay workers more, thanks to a combination of factors including the globalization of the labor force, job automation, the decline of unions, and the rise of contract work.

Companies say salary bumps are too permanent — too expensive. If times get tough, pay cuts hurt morale and productivity and risk attrition. “When you give a raise, it’s stuck in the pay system,” Harvey said. “It is something you’re guaranteeing; it’s becoming a fixed cost.”