Assad’s impending victory raises stakes for security in Israel

As President Donald Trump begins his summit meeting today with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, the Syrian Assad regime continues its military campaign with Russian support to recapture southern Syria, where the spark of Syrian rebellion was lit in 2011.

This expected victory for the Assad regime has strategic ramifications for Syria and Israel.

The campaign was made possible through a reported agreement between Russia and Israel following heightened tension between them. This tension was consequential upon Israel’s efforts to curb Iranian influence and presence in Syria by targeting both Iranian and Syrian military infrastructure.

Tension peaked when Israel struck the Syrian army T4 base near Homs on April 9 without giving Russia, unlike previous times, an advance notice. Russia was concerned about Israel indirectly or directly bringing the downfall of the Syrian regime, which constituted a red line for Moscow. Israel has been worried about Iran deepening its military power in Syria and inching closer to the Golan Heights.

As it turned out, Russia and Israel acknowledged the dangers consequent upon a fallout in their relationship. As a result, Israel came to accept Russia’s promise of keeping Iranian forces and their proxies 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from the Golan. In exchange, Israel will not undermine the Assad regime, while at the same time continuing to address any Iranian threat to its security.

The problem is whether Russia will be able to keep Iranian forces far from Israel’s borders. Reportedly, some Iranian proxies have covertly integrated with Syrian army units advancing toward the Golan. Central to this problem is Moscow’s complex relationship with Tehran.

It’s safe to argue that the Syrian crisis would most likely be discussed during the summit within the context of a deal, preserving the Syrian regime in exchange for curbing Iranian influence in Syria. But this is easier said than done.

Be that as it may, the unfolding developments will no doubt sanction the regime’s gory victory in its civil war and underscore Israel’s gathering predicament.

ROBERT G. RABIL, BOCA RATON Editor’s note: Rabil is a professor of political science at