America’s new Cold War is already upon us
The greatest existential threat facing the United States today is the People’s Republic of China (PRC), led and controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The PRC is an adversary even more capable and dangerous than the Soviet Union was at the height of its power.
The West is fractured on how to confront China and how to eliminate the growing threat from the Chinese Communist Party. With China now the largest trading partner for many international capitals, the United States cannot rely on the free world to economically isolate the PRC the same way it did with the USSR.
Instead of adapting to the threat, multiple administrations pursued closer engagement with the PRC, all assuming that they could guide China on a path to greater economic openness and, ultimately, more political freedom. Under General Secretary Xi Jinping, the PRC has grown more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad. America’s engagement strategy, fueled by trade and manufacturing policies that empowered the CCP, have left the U.S. dependent on the Chinese economy. Critical supply chains, from vital rare-earth elements to key pharmaceutical products, remain largely or wholly dependent on the PRC.
Decades of systemic, unprecedented corporate espionage by the PRC have bled the U.S. economy of trillions of dollars in intellectual property theft. Also, Wall Street has actively financed many Chinese companies by investing pension funds of many U.S. companies. Inside China, the space for academic, religious, economic and political freedom has evaporated. The CCP’s genocide of China’s Uyghur minority and mistreatment of Christians, Tibetans, Hong Kong residents, and any form of political dissident has grown more systematic, and the police state, more draconian. Access to open markets did not lead China to economic and political freedom. It empowered the police state and growing military power while tightening the CCP’s grip over the economy.
Abroad, China is increasingly determined to establish hegemony, supplant U.S. leadership, and intimidate its Indo–Pacific neighbors into submission. It is conducting mock blockades of Taiwan, clashing with Indian troops in the Himalayas, and sending fighter jets to probe Japanese airspace. It has launched economic coercion campaigns against South Korea and Australia while backing Russia’s deadly invasion of Ukraine and keeping the rogue North Korean regime afloat.
The PRC lays claim to the entire South China Sea, where it has militarized new artificial islands and bullied its neighbors. It has harassed U.S. military aircraft and naval vessels operating legally in international waters in an ongoing series of dangerous encounters. And, most recently, a Chinese spy balloon penetrated American airspace and crossed over sensitive military installations as it traversed the continental U.S.
As ambassador to the Organization of American States, I met with Gen. Leopoldo Galtieri, president of Argentina, in 1981. He was supposed to turn around a bad economy, a job he failed miserably. On April 2, 1982, Galtieri made a military issue of a long-smoldering dispute with Great Britain over ownership of the Falkland Islands. The unsuccessful invasion was his attempt to cover his poor economic decisions.
Meanwhile, China’s economy is in crisis, brought about by the real estate crisis. Economists say there are signs China could be facing an extended downturn. Its yuan is at a 16-year low, and the economy appears to be experiencing deflation. Could this be the time for Xi Jinping to create a diversion by invading Taiwan?
It is time to acknowledge reality: The United States is in a New Cold War with the PRC. To win it, we must sustain U.S. economic growth, greater political will, stronger external partnerships, secure borders, synchronized economic and security policies, resilient supply chains, enhanced military deterrence, and U.S. energy independence.
J. William Middendorf II, former secretary of the Navy, is the author of “On My Watch: Tyrants and Patriots,” and “The Great Nightfall: How We Win the New Cold War.”